Fiorentina 2-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Lazio at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Lazio's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Fiorentina's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Lazio have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Fiorentina's 0 victories.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Lazio winning.
It is worth noting that Lazio have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Fiorentina in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Lazio in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 51% versus Lazio 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 43% | Lazio 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.50 xG and Lazio 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.164 / defence 0.878 | Lazio attack 1.215 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.167. Lazio have an above-average attack strength of 1.215 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Fiorentina games / 63 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 41% | Draw 30% | Lazio 29%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Lazio 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lazio (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Fiorentina 30% | Lazio 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Monday 26 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 41% | Draw 30% | Lazio 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Fiorentina 1.50 / Lazio 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.164 / def 0.878 | Lazio attack 1.215 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Lazio xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Lazio kick off?
Fiorentina vs Lazio kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 26 February 2024 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Fiorentina 2 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Fiorentina vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Lazio part of?
Fiorentina vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 41% chance of winning, Lazio a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fiorentina and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Lazio?
Record (5 meetings): Fiorentina 0W | Draws 1 | Lazio 4W.
What form are Fiorentina and Lazio in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Lazio (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Lazio's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
41%
2.44
30%
3.38
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.74
1.25
Lazio xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.25 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fiorentina's recent record stands at 26W 16D 21L from 63 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 34W 12D 17L across 63 games — 1.81 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.49 PPG, Lazio on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fiorentina have managed 16W 8D 7L from 31 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 17W 4D 10L across 31 trips, a 1.77 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.44 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Lazio in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 26W 16D 21L in their last 63 games (1.49 PPG), while Lazio have gone 34W 12D 17L in their last 63 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Lazio away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.81 PPG; Lazio away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lazio in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Lazio runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Oct 2022, when Lazio won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fiorentina
2
Draws
4
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 4, Lazio have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Fiorentina 1-0 Lazio.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 55%, Lazio 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Fiorentina) and 42% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Lazio in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 39% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Fiorentina's recent games and 42% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Lazio tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Lazio in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Lazio 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Lazio 2-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.50 xG and Lazio 1.25 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.16 / defence 0.88 against Lazio attack 1.22 / defence 0.89, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 41% | Draw 30% | Lazio 29%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 43%, Lazio 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Lazio's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.49 PPG, Lazio 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Lazio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.