Empoli 1-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Empoli face Fiorentina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Fiorentina travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena to take on Empoli in Serie A (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Empoli have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Empoli have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fiorentina — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Fiorentina away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Empoli) versus 1.40 (Fiorentina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Empoli have won 2, Fiorentina 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.6 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 23 Oct 2023, ended Empoli 2–0 Fiorentina — a Empoli win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Empoli trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fiorentina trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 42% versus Fiorentina 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 37% | Fiorentina 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Empoli surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Fiorentina have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.06 xG and Fiorentina 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.746 / defence 1.114 | Fiorentina attack 0.918 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.112. Empoli's attack rating of 0.746 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Empoli's last 62 games and Fiorentina's last 62.
Result probabilities: Empoli 32% | Draw 32% | Fiorentina 36%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.14 | Draw 3.08 | Fiorentina 2.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Empoli's last 10 home games and Fiorentina's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Empoli 20% (last 10 home games) | Fiorentina 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 32% | Draw 32% | Fiorentina 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Empoli 1.06 / Fiorentina 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.746 / def 1.114 | Fiorentina attack 0.918 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Fiorentina xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Empoli vs Fiorentina FAQs
What time does Empoli vs Fiorentina kick off?
Empoli vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Empoli 1 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Empoli vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Fiorentina part of?
Empoli vs Fiorentina is a Serie A fixture (matchday 25) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 32% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Empoli and Fiorentina will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Empoli vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.75x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Empoli's last 62 games and Fiorentina's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
32%
3.14
32%
3.08
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.20
1.14
Fiorentina xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
10%
9.81
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Empoli vs Fiorentina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Empoli and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Empoli and 1.14 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Empoli's recent record stands at 15W 19D 28L from 62 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 26W 15D 21L across 62 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fiorentina by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 10W 7D 14L from their last 31 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 10W 7D 14L across their last 31 away games, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.44 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
Empoli (Home) vs Fiorentina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Empoli
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Empoli vs Fiorentina Form FAQs
What form are Empoli and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 15W 19D 28L in their last 62 games (1.03 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 26W 15D 21L in their last 62 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Fiorentina away?
Empoli's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.19 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Empoli's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Empoli
4
Draws
2
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Empoli vs Fiorentina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Fiorentina?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Empoli have won 2, Fiorentina have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Fiorentina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2025: Fiorentina 2-1 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 32%, Fiorentina 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Empoli) and 36% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 45% of games; Fiorentina in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Empoli vs Fiorentina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Empoli and Fiorentina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Empoli's recent matches and 45% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Empoli and Fiorentina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Empoli's recent games and 36% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Fiorentina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Empoli's recent matches and 74% of Fiorentina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli and Fiorentina finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.06 xG and Fiorentina 1.14 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.75 / defence 1.11 against Fiorentina attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 32% | Draw 32% | Fiorentina 36%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 37%, Fiorentina 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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