Hellas Verona 2-2 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Juventus (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hellas Verona face Juventus.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hellas Verona and Juventus meet at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hellas Verona's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hellas Verona have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Juventus have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Juventus arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Juventus, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Juventus winning.
It is worth noting that Juventus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Hellas Verona half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 55% versus Juventus 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hellas Verona 42% | Juventus 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 0.81 xG and Juventus 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.803 / defence 1.131 | Juventus attack 1.147 / defence 0.696. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.106. Juventus's defence strength of 0.696 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 62 Hellas Verona games / 62 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 20% | Draw 30% | Juventus 50%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 5.00 | Draw 3.33 | Juventus 2.00. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Hellas Verona 60% | Juventus 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 20% | Draw 30% | Juventus 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Hellas Verona 0.81 / Juventus 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.803 / def 1.131 | Juventus attack 1.147 / def 0.696 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Juventus (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Juventus xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Juventus kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Juventus kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Juventus?
Hellas Verona 2 - 2 Juventus.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Juventus part of?
Hellas Verona vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 20% chance of winning, Juventus a 50% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hellas Verona and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Juventus?
Record (5 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 0 | Juventus 4W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Juventus in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Juventus (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.80) and Juventus's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (1.15x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
20%
5.09
30%
3.33
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.24
1.44
Juventus xG
5.09
20%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
45%
2.25
Win to Nil
5%
21.39
22%
4.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 15.2 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.44 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 12W 17D 33L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus's form line: 38W 11D 13L from 62 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Juventus are the form team by 1.17 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 1.17 PPG from 29 outings (9W 7D 13L).
On the road, Juventus have gone 17W 3D 9L from 29 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.48 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Juventus in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 12W 17D 33L in their last 62 games (0.85 PPG), while Juventus have gone 38W 11D 13L in their last 62 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.17 PPG; Juventus away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Juventus in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 0-3 on 26 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
6
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 1, Juventus have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Juventus 1-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Juventus see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 59%, Juventus 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hellas Verona) and 34% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Juventus in 52%; Hellas Verona have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 31% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 34% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Juventus tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Juventus in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hellas Verona and Juventus share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 25, as Hellas Verona and Juventus drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.81 xG and Juventus 1.44 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.80 / defence 1.13 against Juventus attack 1.15 / defence 0.70, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 20% | Draw 30% | Juventus 50%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 42%, Juventus 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (62 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Juventus's trading profile (62 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm. Juventus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.