Apollon Smirnis 0-0 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panetolikos at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Apollon Smirnis vs Panetolikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Georgios Kamaras plays host to Apollon Smirnis versus Panetolikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 12 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Apollon Smirnis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Apollon Smirnis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Apollon Smirnis at Stadio Georgios Kamaras this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Kamaras. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Apollon Smirnis are significantly better at Stadio Georgios Kamaras than their overall form suggests.
Panetolikos have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Panetolikos are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Apollon Smirnis 0W, Panetolikos 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Panetolikos winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Apollon Smirnis half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 70% of games.
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Apollon Smirnis 25% versus Panetolikos 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Apollon Smirnis 40% | Panetolikos 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Apollon Smirnis 0.85 xG and Panetolikos 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.558 / defence 1.085 | Panetolikos attack 0.961 / defence 1.547. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 1.179. Apollon Smirnis's attack strength of 0.558 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Panetolikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.547 — this is suppressing Apollon Smirnis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Apollon Smirnis games / 21 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 26% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 45%. Fair-value odds: Apollon Smirnis 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Panetolikos 2.22. Panetolikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Apollon Smirnis 20% | Panetolikos 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Apollon Smirnis vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 26% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Apollon Smirnis 0.85 / Panetolikos 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.558 / def 1.085 | Panetolikos attack 0.961 / def 1.547 | league avg home 0.988 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Apollon Smirnis xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Panetolikos xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Apollon Smirnis vs Panetolikos kick off?
Apollon Smirnis vs Panetolikos kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in Apollon Smirnis vs Panetolikos?
Apollon Smirnis 0 - 0 Panetolikos.
Where is Apollon Smirnis vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is Apollon Smirnis vs Panetolikos part of?
Apollon Smirnis vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Apollon Smirnis vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Apollon Smirnis a 26% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Apollon Smirnis vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Apollon Smirnis and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Apollon Smirnis vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Panetolikos?
Record (1 meetings): Apollon Smirnis 0W | Draws 0 | Panetolikos 1W.
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Panetolikos in?
Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Panetolikos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Apollon Smirnis's attacking strength (0.56x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.96x) against Apollon Smirnis's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
26%
3.89
29%
3.40
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Apollon Smirnis xG
Total xG
2.08
1.23
Panetolikos xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
8%
13.29
19%
5.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 15.3 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Apollon Smirnis vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Apollon Smirnis and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Apollon Smirnis and 1.23 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Apollon Smirnis vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Apollon Smirnis's recent record stands at 1W 6D 13L from 20 games, a 0.45 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Apollon Smirnis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 12L across 20 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Panetolikos by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Apollon Smirnis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Apollon Smirnis have managed 1W 5D 4L from 10 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 3W 1D 6L across 10 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Apollon Smirnis are averaging 0.35 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.15 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Panetolikos in 65%.
Last 20 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 6D 13L in their last 20 games (0.45 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 6W 2D 12L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Apollon Smirnis at home or Panetolikos away?
Panetolikos's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Apollon Smirnis at home: 0.80 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Apollon Smirnis or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Apollon Smirnis have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Apollon Smirnis
1
Draws
1
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Panetolikos?
From 3 meetings on record, Apollon Smirnis have won 1, Panetolikos have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Apollon Smirnis and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Apollon Smirnis 1-0 Panetolikos.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Apollon Smirnis see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Apollon Smirnis 20%, Panetolikos 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Apollon Smirnis) and 70% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Apollon Smirnis keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Apollon Smirnis have failed to score in 70% of games; Panetolikos in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Apollon Smirnis home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Apollon Smirnis play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 60% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Apollon Smirnis vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Apollon Smirnis's recent games and 70% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Apollon Smirnis and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Apollon Smirnis have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Apollon Smirnis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Apollon Smirnis and Panetolikos finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Apollon Smirnis 0.85 xG and Panetolikos 1.23 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Apollon Smirnis fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Panetolikos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Apollon Smirnis attack 0.56 / defence 1.08 against Panetolikos attack 0.96 / defence 1.55, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Apollon Smirnis 26% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 45%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Apollon Smirnis 40%, Panetolikos 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 70% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panetolikos's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Panetolikos arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.