Panetolikos 1-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Panetolikou to take on Panetolikos. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 16 February 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadio Panetolikou — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lamia — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Panetolikos) versus 0.80 (Lamia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 62% versus Lamia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 67% | Lamia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 0.94 xG and Lamia 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.785 / defence 1.364 | Lamia attack 0.574 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.139. Panetolikos's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lamia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Panetolikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Panetolikos games / 21 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 35% | Draw 33% | Lamia 32%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Lamia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Panetolikos as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 60% | Lamia 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 35% | Draw 33% | Lamia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Panetolikos 0.94 / Lamia 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.785 / def 1.364 | Lamia attack 0.574 / def 1.214 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Lamia xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Lamia kick off?
Panetolikos vs Lamia kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 16 February 2022 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Panetolikos 1 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Panetolikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Lamia part of?
Panetolikos vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 35% chance of winning, Lamia a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Panetolikos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Lamia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panetolikos and Lamia in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Lamia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.79x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
35%
2.86
33%
3.08
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
1.83
0.89
Lamia xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 14.3 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.89 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 21 games, going 6W 3D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.86 PPG from 21 outings (4W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.00 PPG, Lamia on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panetolikos's home form reads 2W 1D 6L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.86 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panetolikos have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 6W 3D 12L in their last 21 games (1.00 PPG), while Lamia have gone 4W 6D 11L in their last 21 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Lamia away?
Lamia's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.78 PPG; Lamia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Panetolikos have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Panetolikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panetolikos
1
Draws
5
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 4, Lamia have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Lamia 1-3 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Lamia?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 67%, Lamia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Panetolikos) and 33% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Lamia in 44%; Lamia in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 33% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Panetolikos's recent games and 33% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Lamia tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lamia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panetolikos edge out Lamia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Lamia 1-0 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.94 xG and Lamia 0.89 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lamia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.79 / defence 1.36 against Lamia attack 0.57 / defence 1.21, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 35% | Draw 33% | Lamia 32%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 67%, Lamia 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamia's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.00 PPG, Lamia 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.