Panathinaikos 2-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panathinaikos vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Panathinaikos welcome Lamia to Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panathinaikos stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's home record at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Panathinaikos are significantly better at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panathinaikos 1.30 PPG, Lamia 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Panathinaikos, 0 for Lamia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with Panathinaikos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Panathinaikos trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Lamia trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 40% versus Lamia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 40% | Lamia 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.29 xG and Lamia 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.138 / defence 0.791 | Lamia attack 0.604 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 0.987 / away 1.181. Panathinaikos's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 21 Panathinaikos games / 20 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 54% | Draw 29% | Lamia 16%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Lamia 6.25. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Lamia's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 30% | Lamia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 54% | Draw 29% | Lamia 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 31% | xG Panathinaikos 1.29 / Lamia 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.138 / def 0.791 | Lamia attack 0.604 / def 1.145 | league avg home 0.987 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Lamia xG
31%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Lamia kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Lamia kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Panathinaikos 2 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Lamia part of?
Panathinaikos vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 54% chance of winning, Lamia a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Panathinaikos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
Record (1 meetings): Panathinaikos 1W | Draws 0 | Lamia 0W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Lamia in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Lamia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panathinaikos's attack at 1.14x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.2%), 2-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
54%
1.84
29%
3.41
16%
6.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
1.85
0.56
Lamia xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
6.14
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.21
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
4%
22.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 8.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.2 | 11.4 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.56 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 8W 3D 9L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamia's form line: 4W 6D 10L from 20 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.00 PPG from 10 outings (6W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Panathinaikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lamia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.90 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 8W 3D 9L in their last 20 games (1.35 PPG), while Lamia have gone 4W 6D 10L in their last 20 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Lamia away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.00 PPG; Lamia away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Lamia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Panathinaikos won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Panathinaikos
1
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 8, Lamia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Lamia 3-1 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panathinaikos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Panathinaikos 30% BTTS, Lamia 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Panathinaikos and 40% for Lamia.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Lamia in 40%; Panathinaikos have failed to score in 30% of games; Lamia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 40% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 40% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Lamia tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lamia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Lamia 2-0 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.29 xG and Lamia 0.56 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.14 / defence 0.79 against Lamia attack 0.60 / defence 1.15, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 54% | Draw 29% | Lamia 16%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 40%, Lamia 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.