VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as VfB Stuttgart face Bayern München.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
VfB Stuttgart welcome Bayern München to Stuttgart Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 4 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, VfB Stuttgart stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VfB Stuttgart at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bayern München — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Bayern München have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VfB Stuttgart 2.10 PPG, Bayern München 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 80% of Bayern München's (from VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and Bayern München's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 2 for Bayern München and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2023, ended VfB Stuttgart 0–3 Bayern München — a Bayern München win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bayern München in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 65% and Bayern München 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 69% | Bayern München 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.81 xG and Bayern München 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.405 / defence 0.899 | Bayern München attack 1.511 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.391. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack rating of 1.405 — their 2.81 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Bayern München's defence rating of 1.229 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing VfB Stuttgart's projected output up. Bayern München have an above-average attack rating of 1.511, which lifts their away xG to 1.89. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 65 games and Bayern München's last 65.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 57% | Draw 19% | Bayern München 24%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.77 | Draw 5.21 | Bayern München 4.11. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 85% | BTTS Yes probability 81% | Total xG 4.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 85% — a total xG of 4.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 81% — both xG figures (2.81 / 1.89) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 85% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and Bayern München's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 81% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 60% (last 10 home games) | Bayern München 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 32 | Venue: Stuttgart Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 57% | Draw 19% | Bayern München 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 85% (Under 15%) | BTTS Yes 81% (No 19%) | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.81 / Bayern München 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.405 / def 0.899 | Bayern München attack 1.511 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.81
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Bayern München xG
81%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München FAQs
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Stuttgart Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 1 Bayern München.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Stuttgart Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 32) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 57% chance of winning, Bayern München a 24% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 81% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 85%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.41) and Bayern München's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from VfB Stuttgart's last 65 games and Bayern München's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 6.8%. Close behind: 2-2 (6.4%), 3-1 (6.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
57%
1.77
19%
5.21
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.4%
Draw
3 – 1
6.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.81
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
4.70
1.89
Bayern München xG
1.77
57%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
85%
Over 2.5
1.18
15%
Under 2.5
6.67
69%
Over 3.5
1.45
31%
Under 3.5
3.23
51%
Over 4.5
1.96
49%
Under 4.5
2.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
81%
BTTS Yes
1.24
19%
BTTS No
5.16
Clean Sheet
15%
6.61
6%
16.63
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
1%
68.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.8%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 2.81 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.89 for Bayern München, a combined total of 4.70.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 29W 14D 22L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Bayern München's form line: 43W 11D 11L from 65 games, 2.15 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfB Stuttgart.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.84 PPG from their last 32 home games (17W 8D 7L).
On the road, Bayern München have gone 19W 5D 8L from their last 32 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.78 scored and 1.17 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Bayern München in 62%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
Bayern München
Current Season
VfB Stuttgart (Home) vs Bayern München (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
Bayern München
Current Season
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München Form FAQs
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 29W 14D 22L in their last 65 games (1.55 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 43W 11D 11L in their last 65 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.84 PPG; Bayern München away: 1.94 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Bayern München in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Bayern München have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Dec 2025, when Bayern München won VfB Stuttgart 0-5 Bayern München.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
7
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart have won 1, Bayern München have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Bayern München 5-1 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 66% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 62%, Bayern München at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for VfB Stuttgart and 78% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 72% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 78% of Bayern München's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 91% of Bayern München's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bayern München.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Bayern München 3-1 at Stuttgart Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.81 xG and Bayern München 1.89 xG, a combined 4.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bayern München landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.41 / defence 0.90 against Bayern München attack 1.51 / defence 1.23, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 57% | Draw 19% | Bayern München 24%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 85%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 69% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 81% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 69%, Bayern München 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Bayern München's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.55. Form was overturned, with VfB Stuttgart winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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