Eintracht Frankfurt 1-5 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 32 as Eintracht Frankfurt welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Frankfurt Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Frankfurt Arena, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Frankfurt Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Bayer Leverkusen's 2.60 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Eintracht Frankfurt, 3 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Frankfurt 66% versus Bayer Leverkusen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.13 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.993 / defence 0.833 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.144 / defence 0.680. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.385. Bayer Leverkusen's defence strength of 0.680 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 65 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 30% | Draw 32% | Bayer Leverkusen 39%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 80% | Bayer Leverkusen 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Frankfurt Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 30% | Draw 32% | Bayer Leverkusen 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.13 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.993 / def 0.833 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.144 / def 0.680 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Bayer Leverkusen xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Frankfurt Arena.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 5 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Frankfurt Arena.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 30% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (5 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 2W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 3W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 0.99x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
30%
3.38
32%
3.14
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.45
1.32
Bayer Leverkusen xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
8%
12.64
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.32 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Eintracht Frankfurt have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 24W 23D 18L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 39W 14D 12L from 65 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Frankfurt.
Venue Form
On home soil, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1.88 PPG from 32 outings (16W 12D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Eintracht Frankfurt are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 18W 8D 6L from 32 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.06 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 24W 23D 18L in their last 65 games (1.46 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 39W 14D 12L in their last 65 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.88 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Eintracht Frankfurt or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Frankfurt have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2022, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
0
Draws
8
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 62%, Bayer Leverkusen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 59% (Bayer Leverkusen).
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Bayer Leverkusen in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 59% of Bayer Leverkusen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Eintracht Frankfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-5 at Frankfurt Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.13 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.32 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.32 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.99 / defence 0.83 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.14 / defence 0.68, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 30% | Draw 32% | Bayer Leverkusen 39%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 60%, Bayer Leverkusen 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.46. Form held, and they took the win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.