Werder Bremen 2-2 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Werder Bremen face Borussia Mönchengladbach.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to wohninvest WESERSTADION to take on Werder Bremen in Bundesliga (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Werder Bremen's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Werder Bremen 1.10 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Werder Bremen's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Werder Bremen, 2 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2023, ended Werder Bremen 2–2 Borussia Mönchengladbach — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 63% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Werder Bremen 63% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.74 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.915 / defence 1.036 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.140 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.391. Data: built from Werder Bremen's last 65 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 65.
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 39% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 35%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.56 | Draw 3.84 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.74 / 1.64) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Werder Bremen as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Werder Bremen's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Werder Bremen 70% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 32 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 39% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Werder Bremen 1.74 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.915 / def 1.036 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.140 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach FAQs
What time does Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 4 May 2024 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Werder Bremen 2 - 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 32) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 39% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.92x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Werder Bremen's last 65 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.84
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.39
1.64
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
8%
13.24
6%
16.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.64 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 20W 13D 32L from 65 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, meanwhile, have gone 18W 21D 26L across 65 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.12 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 11W 5D 16L from their last 32 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record stands at 3W 13D 16L across their last 32 away games, a 0.69 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.62 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 66%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Current Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
Werder Bremen (Home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Werder Bremen
Current Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
❓ Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Form FAQs
What form are Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 20W 13D 32L in their last 65 games (1.12 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 18W 21D 26L in their last 65 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.19 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Oct 2022, when Werder Bremen won Werder Bremen 5-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
4
Draws
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Werder Bremen have won 2, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Werder Bremen 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Werder Bremen at 66%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Werder Bremen and 72% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Werder Bremen's games and 78% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Werder Bremen's matches and 72% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 84% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach finished level at 2-2 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.74 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.64 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.14 / defence 1.17, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 39% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 35%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 63%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.12 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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