SV Elversberg 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SV Elversberg face 1. FC Nürnberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SV Elversberg host 1. FC Nürnberg at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 15). Kick-off is Friday 6 December 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
SV Elversberg — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, SV Elversberg have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (SV Elversberg) versus 1.50 (1. FC Nürnberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from SV Elversberg's last 10 home games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, SV Elversberg have won 0, 1. FC Nürnberg 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 May 2024, ended SV Elversberg 0–3 1. FC Nürnberg — a 1. FC Nürnberg win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 60% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 65% | 1. FC Nürnberg 62%). Note also that 1. FC Nürnberg surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while SV Elversberg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.94 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.255 / defence 1.067 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.092 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.524. SV Elversberg carry an above-average attack rating of 1.255 — their 1.94 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from SV Elversberg's last 48 games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 48.
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 41% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Nürnberg 34%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.44 | Draw 4.07 | 1. FC Nürnberg 2.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (1.94 / 1.78) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.72 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Elversberg's last 10 home games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Elversberg 70% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Nürnberg 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 15 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Friday 6 December 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 41% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Nürnberg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG SV Elversberg 1.94 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 1.255 / def 1.067 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.092 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.524 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.78
1. FC Nürnberg xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg FAQs
What time does SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 6 December 2024 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SV Elversberg 2 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 15) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 41% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both SV Elversberg and 1. FC Nürnberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Nürnberg's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Elversberg's last 48 games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
41%
2.44
25%
4.07
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
3.72
1.78
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.66
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
7%
14.40
5%
20.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.78 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, SV Elversberg have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 18W 11D 19L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
1. FC Nürnberg's form line: 16W 11D 21L from 48 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Elversberg on 1.35 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SV Elversberg have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 24 home games (10W 5D 9L).
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 7W 5D 12L from their last 24 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.48 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
SV Elversberg (Home) vs 1. FC Nürnberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Elversberg
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg Form FAQs
What form are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 18W 11D 19L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.46 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 May 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 SV Elversberg.
SV Elversberg's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Elversberg
0
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Elversberg have won 3, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: 1. FC Nürnberg 3-2 SV Elversberg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 58%, 1. FC Nürnberg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SV Elversberg and 62% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Elversberg and 1. FC Nürnberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of SV Elversberg's games and 67% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Nürnberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SV Elversberg's matches and 62% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do SV Elversberg and 1. FC Nürnberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 75% of 1. FC Nürnberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Elversberg edge out 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.94 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.78 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.25 / defence 1.07 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 41% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Nürnberg 34%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 65%, 1. FC Nürnberg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.35 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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