SV Elversberg 1-3 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 14 as SV Elversberg welcome SC Paderborn 07 to URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SV Elversberg — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Elversberg's home record at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (SV Elversberg) versus 1.70 (SC Paderborn 07). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SV Elversberg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SV Elversberg, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SV Elversberg trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Elversberg 60% and SC Paderborn 07 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Elversberg 64% | SC Paderborn 07 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 2.11 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.325 / defence 0.963 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.951 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.517. SV Elversberg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.325 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 SV Elversberg games / 47 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 53% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 24%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | SC Paderborn 07 4.17. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Elversberg 60% | SC Paderborn 07 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 53% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG SV Elversberg 2.11 / SC Paderborn 07 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 1.325 / def 0.963 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.951 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.517 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.39
SC Paderborn 07 xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
SV Elversberg 1 - 3 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 53% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (2 meetings): SV Elversberg 1W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.34
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
3.50
1.39
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
12%
8.24
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
3%
34.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.39 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Elversberg's recent record stands at 18W 11D 18L from 47 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 13L across 47 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Elversberg on 1.38 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SV Elversberg have managed 10W 5D 8L from 23 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 10W 7D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.62 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 70%.
Last 47 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 18W 11D 18L in their last 47 games (1.38 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 21W 13D 13L in their last 47 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.52 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SV Elversberg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when SV Elversberg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Elversberg's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Elversberg
1
Draws
2
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 3, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when SV Elversberg 5-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SV Elversberg at 56%, SC Paderborn 07 at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for SV Elversberg and 78% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of SV Elversberg's games and 83% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of SV Elversberg's matches and 78% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SV Elversberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat SV Elversberg 1-3 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 2.11 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.39 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SV Elversberg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.32 / defence 0.96 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.95 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 53% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 24%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a SC Paderborn 07 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 64%, SC Paderborn 07 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.38 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.