1. FC Nürnberg 2-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Nürnberg face Fortuna Düsseldorf.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 14). Kick-off is Sunday 1 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.40 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 4, Fortuna Düsseldorf 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 May 2024, ended 1. FC Nürnberg 1–3 Fortuna Düsseldorf — a Fortuna Düsseldorf win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Nürnberg in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 57% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 62% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Nürnberg surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Fortuna Düsseldorf have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.46 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.277 / defence 1.175 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.055 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.515. 1. FC Nürnberg carry an above-average attack rating of 1.277 — their 1.46 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Fortuna Düsseldorf bring a tight defence (rating 0.783, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output down. Data: built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 47 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 47.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 28% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 46%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 3.51 | Draw 3.91 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.18. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.46 / 1.88) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 home games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: 1. FC Nürnberg 30% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 14 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 28% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.46 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.277 / def 1.175 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.055 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.515 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf FAQs
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 14) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 28% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (1.28) and Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 47 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
28%
3.51
26%
3.91
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.34
1.88
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
15%
6.54
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
4%
22.99
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.88 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 16W 10D 21L from 47 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 24W 11D 12L across 47 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortuna Düsseldorf by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Nürnberg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 9W 5D 9L from their last 23 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 14W 5D 4L across their last 23 away games, a 2.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.96 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg (Home) vs Fortuna Düsseldorf (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 16W 10D 21L in their last 47 games (1.23 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 24W 11D 12L in their last 47 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.39 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 2.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Dec 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 1. FC Nürnberg 0-5 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 48%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 65% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 35%; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 52% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 65% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 83% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.46 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.88 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.28 / defence 1.18 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.05 / defence 0.78, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 28% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 46%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 62%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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