Zlin 1-7 Plzen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Zlin at 41%, yet in-form Plzen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zlin vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zlin and Plzen meet at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Zlin's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Letná, Zlin have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letná than their overall form suggests.
Plzen (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Plzen are 0.70 PPG clear of Zlin in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Zlin have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Plzen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Plzen, who have claimed 4 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 0–4 with Plzen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Plzen have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Zlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Plzen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 63% and Plzen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 61% | Plzen 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.52 xG and Plzen 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.975 / defence 0.973 | Plzen attack 1.272 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.111. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Zlin games / 36 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 41% | Draw 25% | Plzen 34%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Plzen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plzen (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 70% | Plzen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 41% | Draw 25% | Plzen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Zlin 1.52 / Plzen 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.975 / def 0.973 | Plzen attack 1.272 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Zlin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Plzen xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Plzen kick off?
Zlin vs Plzen kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Plzen?
Zlin 1 - 7 Plzen.
Where is Zlin vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Plzen part of?
Zlin vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 41% chance of winning, Plzen a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Zlin and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Plzen?
Record (4 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 0 | Plzen 4W.
What form are Zlin and Plzen in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Plzen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Zlin's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Plzen's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.27x) against Zlin's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
41%
2.44
25%
4.05
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.90
1.38
Plzen xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Zlin and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Zlin and 1.38 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Zlin have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 9W 14D 18L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen's form line: 22W 8D 11L from 41 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 9W 4D 6L from 19 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zlin are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.78 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Plzen in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Plzen in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 9W 14D 18L in their last 41 games (1.00 PPG), while Plzen have gone 22W 8D 11L in their last 41 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.47 PPG; Plzen away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Zlin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 1-7 on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Zlin
0
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Plzen?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 2, Plzen have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Zlin 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 68%, Plzen 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Zlin and 58% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen in 32%; Zlin have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Zlin's games and 58% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Zlin's matches and 58% of Plzen's.
Do Zlin and Plzen tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Plzen in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 1-7 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Zlin 1-7 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.52 xG and Plzen 1.38 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-7 for 8 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 1.38 projection by 5.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against Plzen attack 1.27 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 41% | Draw 25% | Plzen 34%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 61%, Plzen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.