Mlada Boleslav 5-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Mlada Boleslav welcome Hradec Králové to Lokotrans Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mlada Boleslav 1.10 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Mlada Boleslav, 1 for Hradec Králové and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Hradec Králové winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 55% versus Hradec Králové 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 53% | Hradec Králové 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.56 xG and Hradec Králové 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.982 / defence 1.016 | Hradec Králové attack 0.877 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.122. Data: 36 Mlada Boleslav games / 37 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 24%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Hradec Králové 4.17. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Hradec Králové 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.56 / Hradec Králové 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.982 / def 1.016 | Hradec Králové attack 0.877 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Hradec Králové xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav 5 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 50% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Record (3 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 1W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 0.98x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
50%
1.98
25%
3.94
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.56
1.00
Hradec Králové xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
5%
19.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.00 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 11W 13D 14L from 38 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 17L across 38 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.21 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 5W 10D 4L from 19 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 6W 5D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.24 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 14W 7D 17L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Hradec Králové away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.32 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 58%, Hradec Králové 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Mlada Boleslav) and 53% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Mlada Boleslav have failed to score in 26% of games; Hradec Králové in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 53% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 53% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Hradec Králové 5-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.56 xG and Hradec Králové 1.00 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against Hradec Králové attack 0.88 / defence 0.98, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 50% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 24%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 53%, Hradec Králové 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.21 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.