Bohemians 1905 1-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
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Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Ďolíček this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.20 PPG versus Baník Ostrava's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Baník Ostrava have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Bohemians 1905.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 1–4 with Baník Ostrava winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Baník Ostrava have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 52% versus Baník Ostrava 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 55% | Baník Ostrava 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.66 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.972 / defence 1.062 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.957 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.122. Data: 37 Bohemians 1905 games / 37 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 49% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 26%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Baník Ostrava 3.85. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Baník Ostrava 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 49% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.66 / Baník Ostrava 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.972 / def 1.062 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.957 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Baník Ostrava xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 49% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
Record (4 meetings): Bohemians 1905 0W | Draws 1 | Baník Ostrava 3W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.97) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
49%
2.02
24%
4.11
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.80
1.14
Baník Ostrava xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
5%
19.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.14 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 42 games, going 18W 7D 17L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.24 PPG from 42 outings (14W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.45 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 7W 5D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 0.85 points per game from 20 outings (3W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.45 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 18W 7D 17L in their last 42 games (1.45 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.30 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bohemians 1905 at 60%, Baník Ostrava at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians 1905) and 50% (Baník Ostrava).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bohemians 1905's games and 70% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 50% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 and Baník Ostrava finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.66 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.14 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 49% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 26%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 55%, Baník Ostrava 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.45 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.