Slavia Praha 3-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slavia Praha face Pardubice.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Arena plays host to Slavia Praha versus Pardubice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Slavia Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Fortuna Arena, Slavia Praha have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pardubice have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Slavia Praha's favour (2.50 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 4 previous meetings, Slavia Praha are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Slavia Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Slavia Praha and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Pardubice — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 52% versus Pardubice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 61% | Pardubice 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.76 xG and Pardubice 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.270 / defence 0.996 | Pardubice attack 1.097 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.254. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Slavia Praha games / 51 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 45% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 29%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Pardubice 3.45. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 60% | Pardubice 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 45% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Slavia Praha 1.76 / Pardubice 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.270 / def 0.996 | Pardubice attack 1.097 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Pardubice xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Pardubice kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Slavia Praha 3 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Pardubice part of?
Slavia Praha vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 45% chance of winning, Pardubice a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Slavia Praha and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Pardubice?
Record (4 meetings): Slavia Praha 4W | Draws 0 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Pardubice in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Pardubice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Slavia Praha's attack rating (1.27) and Pardubice's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (1.10x) against Slavia Praha's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.85
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.13
1.37
Pardubice xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
5%
20.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.37 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slavia Praha's recent record stands at 40W 10D 6L from 56 games, a 2.32 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 28L across 56 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Slavia Praha have managed 25W 2D 1L from 28 games — 2.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.32 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pardubice's away record stands at 9W 3D 16L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.07 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 40W 10D 6L in their last 56 games (2.32 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 18W 10D 28L in their last 56 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Pardubice away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.75 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Pardubice in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 7-0 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 0D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
0
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 9, Pardubice have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Slavia Praha 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Pardubice?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 50%, Pardubice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Slavia Praha and 54% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Pardubice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 50% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Slavia Praha's matches and 54% of Pardubice's.
Do Slavia Praha and Pardubice tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Pardubice 3-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.76 xG and Pardubice 1.37 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pardubice landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.27 / defence 1.00 against Pardubice attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 45% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 29%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 61%, Pardubice 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pardubice's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.