Plzen 3-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Plzen face Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zlin make the trip to Doosan Aréna to face Plzen in Czech Liga (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Plzen (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Plzen have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zlin have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Plzen's favour (2.00 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Plzen, who have won 5 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Zlin — Zlin have 0 wins, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Plzen 7–1 Zlin — a Plzen win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Plzen and goals — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 4.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Plzen — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Zlin — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Plzen 62% and Zlin 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 64% | Zlin 59%). Note also that Zlin surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Plzen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.17 xG and Zlin 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.180 / defence 1.035 | Zlin attack 0.884 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.272. Zlin's defence rating of 1.201 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Plzen's projected output up. Data: built from Plzen's last 51 games and Zlin's last 51.
Result probabilities: Plzen 59% | Draw 23% | Zlin 18%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.69 | Draw 4.43 | Zlin 5.43. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.17 / 1.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Plzen's last 10 home games and Zlin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plzen 70% (last 10 home games) | Zlin 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 59% | Draw 23% | Zlin 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Plzen 2.17 / Zlin 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.180 / def 1.035 | Zlin attack 0.884 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Plzen (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Zlin xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plzen vs Zlin FAQs
What time does Plzen vs Zlin kick off?
Plzen vs Zlin kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Zlin?
Plzen 3 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Plzen vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Zlin part of?
Plzen vs Zlin is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 59% chance of winning, Zlin a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Plzen and Zlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plzen vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plzen's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.88x) against Plzen's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Plzen's last 51 games and Zlin's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.43
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.33
1.16
Zlin xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
11%
8.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
2%
47.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plzen vs Zlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Plzen and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Plzen and 1.16 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Plzen have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 31W 10D 15L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Zlin's form line: 12W 19D 25L from 56 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Plzen have posted 1.89 PPG from their last 28 home games (16W 5D 7L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 2W 11D 15L from their last 28 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plzen are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.23 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Zlin in 64%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Zlin
Blended
Plzen (Home) vs Zlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plzen
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Plzen vs Zlin Form FAQs
What form are Plzen and Zlin in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 31W 10D 15L in their last 56 games (1.84 PPG), while Zlin have gone 12W 19D 25L in their last 56 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Zlin away?
Plzen's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.89 PPG; Zlin away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won Zlin 1-7 Plzen on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Zlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Plzen
0
Draws
2
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Plzen vs Zlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Zlin?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Plzen have won 7, Zlin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Zlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Plzen 3-2 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Zlin?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 64%, Zlin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Plzen and 54% for Zlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plzen vs Zlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plzen and Zlin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Plzen's games and 54% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Plzen and Zlin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Plzen's matches and 54% of Zlin's.
Do Plzen and Zlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Plzen's recent matches and 64% of Zlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Zlin 3-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.17 xG and Zlin 1.16 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zlin landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.18 / defence 1.03 against Zlin attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 59% | Draw 23% | Zlin 18%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 64%, Zlin 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Zlin's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.