Baník Ostrava 1-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Baník Ostrava face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Baník Ostrava welcome Bohemians 1905 to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Bohemians 1905 have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Baník Ostrava) versus 1.00 (Bohemians 1905). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Baník Ostrava, 0 for Bohemians 1905 and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Baník Ostrava 1–1 Bohemians 1905 — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 57% versus Bohemians 1905 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 57% | Bohemians 1905 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.53 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.880 / defence 0.903 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.001 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.250. Data: built from Baník Ostrava's last 51 games and Bohemians 1905's last 51.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 27%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.19 | Draw 3.69 | Bohemians 1905 3.68. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Baník Ostrava 30% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Baník Ostrava 1.53 / Bohemians 1905 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.880 / def 0.903 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.001 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Bohemians 1905 xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 FAQs
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 46% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baník Ostrava's last 51 games and Bohemians 1905's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.69
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.66
1.13
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
6%
16.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.13 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Baník Ostrava have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 20W 12D 24L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 21W 13D 22L from 56 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.29 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Baník Ostrava have posted 1.39 PPG from their last 28 home games (12W 3D 13L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 4D 12L from their last 28 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.30 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Baník Ostrava (Home) vs Bohemians 1905 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 Form FAQs
What form are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 21W 13D 22L in their last 56 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.39 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Bohemians 1905 have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Nov 2022, when Baník Ostrava won Baník Ostrava 4-1 Bohemians 1905.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baník Ostrava
3
Draws
4
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Baník Ostrava have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Bohemians 1905 1-0 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 50%, Bohemians 1905 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Baník Ostrava) and 57% (Bohemians 1905). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 57% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 79% of Bohemians 1905's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 finished level at 1-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.53 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.13 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.00 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 27%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 57%, Bohemians 1905 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.29 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.