Pardubice 0-3 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mlada Boleslav (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Mlada Boleslav.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mlada Boleslav make the trip to CFIG Arena to face Pardubice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pardubice have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at CFIG Arena, Pardubice have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Mlada Boleslav are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Pardubice 1W, Mlada Boleslav 3W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Mlada Boleslav goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 44% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 42% | Mlada Boleslav 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.18 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.779 / defence 1.020 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.035 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.207. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Pardubice games / 52 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 34% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 39%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Mlada Boleslav 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 40% | Mlada Boleslav 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 34% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Pardubice 1.18 / Mlada Boleslav 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.779 / def 1.020 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.035 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Mlada Boleslav xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Pardubice 0 - 3 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 34% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (5 meetings): Pardubice 1W | Draws 1 | Mlada Boleslav 3W.
What form are Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav in?
Pardubice (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.03x) against Pardubice's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.67
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.45
1.27
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.27 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Pardubice have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 14W 13D 30L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 21W 15D 21L from 57 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mlada Boleslav are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.04 PPG from 28 outings (7W 8D 13L).
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 7W 9D 12L from 28 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.49 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 14W 13D 30L in their last 57 games (0.96 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 21W 15D 21L in their last 57 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Mlada Boleslav's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.04 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 0-3 on 27 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pardubice
2
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Pardubice 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 46%, Mlada Boleslav 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Pardubice) and 50% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 39% of games; Mlada Boleslav in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Pardubice's recent matches and 54% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Pardubice's recent games and 50% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Pardubice 0-3 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.18 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.27 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Pardubice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.78 / defence 1.02 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.03 / defence 0.98, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 34% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 39%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, Mlada Boleslav 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.