Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andrův stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andrův stadion than their overall form suggests.
Pardubice (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Sigma Olomouc 2W, Pardubice 1W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 68% versus Pardubice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 62% | Pardubice 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.75 xG and Pardubice 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.037 / defence 1.178 | Pardubice attack 0.759 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.152. Data: 51 Sigma Olomouc games / 51 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 54% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 22%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Pardubice 4.55. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 90% | Pardubice 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 54% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.75 / Pardubice 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.037 / def 1.178 | Pardubice attack 0.759 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Pardubice xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Sigma Olomouc 4 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 54% chance of winning, Pardubice a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice?
Record (6 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 2W | Draws 3 | Pardubice 1W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Pardubice (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (1.04) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.76x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
54%
1.85
24%
4.24
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.78
1.03
Pardubice xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
4%
25.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.03 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 18W 12D 23L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice's form line: 14W 12D 27L from 53 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.02 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.50 PPG from 26 outings (11W 6D 9L).
On the road, Pardubice have gone 7W 5D 14L from 26 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.02 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 games (1.25 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 14W 12D 27L in their last 53 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Pardubice away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.50 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 1-5 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 3-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 69%, Pardubice 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Sigma Olomouc and 50% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 42% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 50% of Pardubice's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sigma Olomouc run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Pardubice 4-0 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.75 xG and Pardubice 1.03 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pardubice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.04 / defence 1.18 against Pardubice attack 0.76 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 54% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 22%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 62%, Pardubice 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.25 PPG, Pardubice 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.