Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Plzen at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav host Plzen at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 March 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Plzen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against Mlada Boleslav's 0 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Plzen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Mlada Boleslav in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 57% versus Plzen 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 62% | Plzen 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.24 xG and Plzen 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.052 / defence 0.973 | Plzen attack 1.103 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.223. Plzen's defence strength of 0.787 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Mlada Boleslav games / 53 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 34% | Draw 28% | Plzen 38%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Plzen 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Plzen 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 34% | Draw 28% | Plzen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.24 / Plzen 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.052 / def 0.973 | Plzen attack 1.103 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Plzen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Plzen xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Mlada Boleslav 0 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 34% chance of winning, Plzen a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
Record (7 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 0W | Draws 3 | Plzen 4W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Plzen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.05) and Plzen's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
34%
2.91
28%
3.58
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.55
1.31
Plzen xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
9%
10.82
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.31 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 22W 15D 21L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 36W 11D 11L from 58 games, 2.05 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mlada Boleslav.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.61 PPG from 28 outings (13W 6D 9L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 15W 6D 7L from 28 away games — 1.82 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.09 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Plzen in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 22W 15D 21L in their last 58 games (1.40 PPG), while Plzen have gone 36W 11D 11L in their last 58 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.61 PPG; Plzen away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Plzen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Plzen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2025, when Plzen won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, Plzen have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Plzen 2-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 61%, Plzen 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Mlada Boleslav and 57% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 57% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 57% of Plzen's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Plzen tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Plzen in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Mlada Boleslav 0-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.24 xG and Plzen 1.31 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against Plzen attack 1.10 / defence 0.79, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 34% | Draw 28% | Plzen 38%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 62%, Plzen 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.