Mlada Boleslav 3-2 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav host Zlin at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Lokotrans Aréna this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mlada Boleslav are significantly better at Lokotrans Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mlada Boleslav at 1.00 PPG versus Zlin's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Mlada Boleslav: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Zlin, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 9–5 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Mlada Boleslav and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Zlin in-play tendencies (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mlada Boleslav 58% and Zlin 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 56% | Zlin 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 2.05 xG and Zlin 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.089 / defence 1.112 | Zlin attack 0.903 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.236. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Mlada Boleslav's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Mlada Boleslav games / 55 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 55% | Draw 23% | Zlin 22%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Zlin 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 80% | Zlin 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 55% | Draw 23% | Zlin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Mlada Boleslav 2.05 / Zlin 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.089 / def 1.112 | Zlin attack 0.903 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Zlin xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Mlada Boleslav 3 - 2 Zlin.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 55% chance of winning, Zlin a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
Record (5 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 3W | Draws 2 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Zlin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.09) and Zlin's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.42
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.29
1.24
Zlin xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
3%
35.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.24 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 19W 17D 21L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin's form line: 12W 19D 26L from 57 games, 0.96 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.30 PPG, Zlin on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.52 PPG from 29 outings (11W 11D 7L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 2W 11D 16L from 29 away games — 0.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.23 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 63%.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 19W 17D 21L in their last 57 games (1.30 PPG), while Zlin have gone 12W 19D 26L in their last 57 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Zlin away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.52 PPG; Zlin away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
From 9 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Zlin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 66%, Zlin 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Mlada Boleslav) and 59% (Zlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 55% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 59% of Zlin's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Zlin tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Zlin in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Zlin 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Zlin 3-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 2.05 xG and Zlin 1.24 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.09 / defence 1.11 against Zlin attack 0.90 / defence 1.23, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 55% | Draw 23% | Zlin 22%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 56%, Zlin 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.30 PPG, Zlin 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.