Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Chengdu Better City travel to Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 29 June 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chengdu Better City — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Chengdu Better City away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Chengdu Better City's 2.60 PPG return is 2.30 points per game ahead of Shenzhen Ruby FC's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Shenzhen Ruby FC's 30% rate and Chengdu Better City's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 0 for Chengdu Better City and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shenzhen Ruby FC trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Chengdu Better City trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 39% versus Chengdu Better City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 53% | Chengdu Better City 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.02 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.940 / defence 1.230 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.068 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.265. Chengdu Better City's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 46 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 22% | Draw 27% | Chengdu Better City 51%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Chengdu Better City 1.96. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Chengdu Better City 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Jun 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 22% | Draw 27% | Chengdu Better City 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.02 / Chengdu Better City 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.940 / def 1.230 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.068 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Chengdu Better City xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:35 on Thursday 29 June 2023 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 3 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 22% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City?
Record (2 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W | Draws 1 | Chengdu Better City 0W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Chengdu Better City's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
22%
4.57
27%
3.70
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.68
1.66
Chengdu Better City xG
4.57
22%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
19%
5.27
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
4%
24.11
18%
5.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.66 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 10W 3D 23L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Chengdu Better City's form line: 19W 12D 5L from 36 games, 1.92 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 0.89 PPG from 18 outings (5W 1D 12L).
On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 10W 4D 4L from 18 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.42 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 10W 3D 23L in their last 36 games (0.92 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 19W 12D 5L in their last 36 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 0.89 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chengdu Better City have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2023, when Chengdu Better City won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
2
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City?
From 4 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2023, when Chengdu Better City 4-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Shenzhen Ruby FC 33% BTTS, Chengdu Better City 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 28% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City in 50%; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 56% of games; Chengdu Better City in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 33% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 28% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.02 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.66 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Chengdu Better City outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.23 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.07 / defence 0.79, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 22% | Draw 27% | Chengdu Better City 51%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 53%, Chengdu Better City 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.