Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Henan Jianye travel to Cangzhou Stadium to take on Shijiazhuang Y. J.. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 28 June 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Cangzhou Stadium, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cangzhou Stadium this season.
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.80 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Shijiazhuang Y. J., 2 for Henan Jianye and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Henan Jianye trading profile (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 53% versus Henan Jianye 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47% | Henan Jianye 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.27 xG and Henan Jianye 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.911 / defence 1.036 | Henan Jianye attack 0.907 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.286. Data: 46 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 45 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 30% | Henan Jianye 33%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Henan Jianye 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Henan Jianye 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jun 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 30% | Henan Jianye 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.27 / Henan Jianye 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.911 / def 1.036 | Henan Jianye attack 0.907 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Henan Jianye xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 28 June 2023 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 36% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye?
Record (4 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 2W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.91x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
36%
2.76
30%
3.28
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.48
1.21
Henan Jianye xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
9%
10.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.21 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 17W 17D 21L from 55 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 15L across 55 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 1.24 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 8W 11D 9L from 28 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 8W 11D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.38 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 17W 17D 21L in their last 55 games (1.24 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 23W 17D 15L in their last 55 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Henan Jianye away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.25 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Henan Jianye won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
5
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye?
From 8 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2024, when Henan Jianye 0-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 39%, Henan Jianye 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 32% for Henan Jianye.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 39%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 39% of games; Henan Jianye in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 39% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 32% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Henan Jianye defy the odds to beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.27 xG and Henan Jianye 1.21 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Henan Jianye attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 30% | Henan Jianye 33%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Henan Jianye win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%, Henan Jianye 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.24 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.