Changchun Yatai 4-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Changchun Yatai (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Changchun Yatai face Shenzhen Ruby FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Shenzhen Ruby FC travel to Changchun's People Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Thursday 8 June 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Changchun Yatai at Changchun's People Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Changchun's People Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League games this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have recorded 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Changchun Yatai are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Changchun Yatai have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Shenzhen Ruby FC have managed just 0 wins.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2022, ended 2–0 with Changchun Yatai winning.
The historical record gives Changchun Yatai a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Changchun Yatai trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Shenzhen Ruby FC trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 53% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 51% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.88 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.983 / defence 1.299 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.763 / defence 1.411. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.274. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.411 — this is suppressing Changchun Yatai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Changchun Yatai games / 44 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 51% | Draw 25% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.17. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Changchun Yatai 30% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Jun 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 51% | Draw 25% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.88 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.983 / def 1.299 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.763 / def 1.411 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 12:35 on Thursday 8 June 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Changchun Yatai 4 - 1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 51% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (4 meetings): Changchun Yatai 3W | Draws 1 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (0.98) and Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
51%
1.97
25%
4.03
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
3.14
1.26
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
4%
26.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.26 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 17D 17L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Shenzhen Ruby FC sit at 1.13 PPG from 55 outings (18W 8D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.45 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 11W 8D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have taken 1.15 points per game from 27 outings (9W 4D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 17D 17L in their last 55 games (1.45 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 18W 8D 29L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.52 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Changchun Yatai have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Jun 2023, when Changchun Yatai won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 5, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 48%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Changchun Yatai) and 63% (Shenzhen Ruby FC).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 30% of games; Shenzhen Ruby FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 59% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 63% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Changchun Yatai run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 4-1 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.88 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.26 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.98 / defence 1.30 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.41, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 51% | Draw 25% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 24%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 51%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.45 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.