Beerschot VA 1-0 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beerschot VA at 50% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KRC Genk II make the trip to Olympisch Stadion to face Beerschot VA in Challenger Pro League (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Beerschot VA have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Beerschot VA at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
KRC Genk II (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
KRC Genk II's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Beerschot VA against 1.80 for KRC Genk II. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Beerschot VA have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with KRC Genk II managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Beerschot VA 2–1 KRC Genk II — a Beerschot VA win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Beerschot VA and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
KRC Genk II — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 52% versus KRC Genk II 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 55% | KRC Genk II 64%). Note also that KRC Genk II surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Beerschot VA recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.59 xG and KRC Genk II 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.991 / defence 0.708 | KRC Genk II attack 1.015 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.425. KRC Genk II's defence rating of 1.228 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Beerschot VA's projected output up. Beerschot VA have a tight defence (rating 0.708), which is pulling KRC Genk II's projected output down. Data: built from Beerschot VA's last 48 games and KRC Genk II's last 48.
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 50% | Draw 25% | KRC Genk II 24%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 1.98 | Draw 3.98 | KRC Genk II 4.09. Beerschot VA hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beerschot VA as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Beerschot VA 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beerschot VA 50% (last 10 home games) | KRC Genk II 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 50% | Draw 25% | KRC Genk II 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Beerschot VA 1.59 / KRC Genk II 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.991 / def 0.708 | KRC Genk II attack 1.015 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.02
KRC Genk II xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II FAQs
What time does Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 29 March 2024 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Beerschot VA 1 - 0 KRC Genk II.
Where is Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II part of?
Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 50% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beerschot VA's attack rating (0.99) and KRC Genk II's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KRC Genk II's attack (1.01x) against Beerschot VA's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Beerschot VA's last 48 games and KRC Genk II's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
50%
1.98
25%
3.98
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.61
1.02
KRC Genk II xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
5%
20.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.02 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beerschot VA's recent record stands at 30W 9D 19L from 58 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 29L across 58 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beerschot VA by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beerschot VA have managed 13W 7D 9L from their last 29 home games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 7W 7D 15L across their last 29 away games, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.38 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 67%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
Beerschot VA (Home) vs KRC Genk II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beerschot VA
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II Form FAQs
What form are Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 30W 9D 19L in their last 58 games (1.71 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 15W 14D 29L in their last 58 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or KRC Genk II away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.59 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Beerschot VA have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beerschot VA have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Beerschot VA
0
Draws
0
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Beerschot VA have won 6, KRC Genk II have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: Beerschot VA 1-0 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 45%, KRC Genk II 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Beerschot VA) and 66% (KRC Genk II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Beerschot VA's games and 72% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Beerschot VA's matches and 66% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 79% of KRC Genk II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beerschot VA edge out KRC Genk II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat KRC Genk II 1-0 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.59 xG and KRC Genk II 1.02 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KRC Genk II landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.99 / defence 0.71 against KRC Genk II attack 1.01 / defence 1.23, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 50% | Draw 25% | KRC Genk II 24%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 55%, KRC Genk II 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.