Zulte Waregem 0-1 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beerschot VA at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Beerschot VA travel to Elindus Arena to take on Zulte Waregem. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 March 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zulte Waregem stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zulte Waregem have posted 3W 2D 5L at Elindus Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Beerschot VA have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zulte Waregem at 1.40 PPG versus Beerschot VA's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Zulte Waregem have won 2, Beerschot VA 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Zulte Waregem winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Beerschot VA in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 65% versus Beerschot VA 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 61% | Beerschot VA 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 0.99 xG and Beerschot VA 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.707 / defence 1.170 | Beerschot VA attack 1.180 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.413. Zulte Waregem's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Zulte Waregem games / 47 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 19% | Draw 22% | Beerschot VA 60%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Beerschot VA 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Beerschot VA (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Zulte Waregem dominate the H2H record, yet Beerschot VA are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Beerschot VA are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 50% | Beerschot VA 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 19% | Draw 22% | Beerschot VA 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Zulte Waregem 0.99 / Beerschot VA 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.707 / def 1.170 | Beerschot VA attack 1.180 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Beerschot VA xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 March 2024 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA?
Zulte Waregem 0 - 1 Beerschot VA.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 19% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA?
Record (3 meetings): Zulte Waregem 2W | Draws 1 | Beerschot VA 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Beerschot VA (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (0.71) and Beerschot VA's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
19%
5.39
22%
4.63
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.94
1.95
Beerschot VA xG
5.39
19%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
14%
7.04
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
3%
37.91
22%
4.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.95 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 18W 13D 26L from 57 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 29W 9D 19L across 57 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beerschot VA by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zulte Waregem heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 5W 7D 16L from 28 games — 0.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 16W 2D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.49 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 18W 13D 26L in their last 57 games (1.18 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 29W 9D 19L in their last 57 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Beerschot VA away?
Beerschot VA's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 0.79 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
1
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA?
From 4 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 2, Beerschot VA have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2024, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 68%, Beerschot VA 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Zulte Waregem and 68% for Beerschot VA. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Zulte Waregem's games and 61% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 68% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beerschot VA edge out Zulte Waregem 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat Zulte Waregem 0-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 0.99 xG and Beerschot VA 1.95 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zulte Waregem fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Beerschot VA landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.71 / defence 1.17 against Beerschot VA attack 1.18 / defence 1.09, drawn from 25/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 19% | Draw 22% | Beerschot VA 60%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 61%, Beerschot VA 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.