KRC Genk II 1-0 Standard Liège II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KRC Genk II at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II meet at De Leunen in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
KRC Genk II (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II at De Leunen this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Standard Liège II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liège II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liège II's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. KRC Genk II's 1.50 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Standard Liège II's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — KRC Genk II register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Standard Liège II in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for KRC Genk II, 1 for Standard Liège II and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with Standard Liège II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
KRC Genk II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Standard Liège II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KRC Genk II 66% and Standard Liège II 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 63% | Standard Liège II 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 2.17 xG and Standard Liège II 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 1.226 / defence 1.034 | Standard Liège II attack 0.855 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.336. Standard Liège II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing KRC Genk II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 KRC Genk II games / 49 Standard Liège II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 60% | Draw 20% | Standard Liège II 20%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Standard Liège II 5.00. The model has a clear lean to KRC Genk II (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KRC Genk II as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: KRC Genk II 80% | Standard Liège II 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 60% | Draw 20% | Standard Liège II 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG KRC Genk II 2.17 / Standard Liège II 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 1.226 / def 1.034 | Standard Liège II attack 0.855 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Standard Liège II xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II?
KRC Genk II 1 - 0 Standard Liège II.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II part of?
KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 60% chance of winning, Standard Liège II a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II?
Record (5 meetings): KRC Genk II 0W | Draws 4 | Standard Liège II 1W.
What form are KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Standard Liège II (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from KRC Genk II's attack rating (1.23) and Standard Liège II's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Standard Liège II's attack (0.85x) against KRC Genk II's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
60%
1.67
20%
4.95
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
3.35
1.18
Standard Liège II xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
11%
8.73
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
2%
43.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.18 for Standard Liège II, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KRC Genk II's recent record stands at 15W 14D 30L from 59 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Standard Liège II, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 35L across 59 games — 0.75 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Standard Liège II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for KRC Genk II against 0.75 for Standard Liège II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, KRC Genk II have managed 8W 7D 14L from 29 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liège II's away record stands at 4W 6D 19L across 29 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KRC Genk II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Standard Liège II are on 0.92 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
Standard Liège II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 15W 14D 30L in their last 59 games (1.00 PPG), while Standard Liège II have gone 10W 14D 35L in their last 59 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Standard Liège II away?
KRC Genk II's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.07 PPG; Standard Liège II away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KRC Genk II have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Standard Liège II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
KRC Genk II
4
Draws
1
Standard Liège II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II?
From 6 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 1, Standard Liège II have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when KRC Genk II 1-0 Standard Liège II.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 62%, Standard Liège II 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (KRC Genk II) and 55% (Standard Liège II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II have failed to score in 28% of games; Standard Liège II in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Standard Liège II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Standard Liège II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of KRC Genk II's games and 52% of Standard Liège II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KRC Genk II vs Standard Liège II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of KRC Genk II's matches and 55% of Standard Liège II's.
Do KRC Genk II and Standard Liège II tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Standard Liège II in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KRC Genk II edge out Standard Liège II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II beat Standard Liège II 1-0 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 28, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 2.17 xG and Standard Liège II 1.18 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KRC Genk II fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Standard Liège II landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 1.23 / defence 1.03 against Standard Liège II attack 0.85 / defence 1.32, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 60% | Draw 20% | Standard Liège II 20%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 63%, Standard Liège II 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Standard Liège II's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KRC Genk II 1.00 PPG, Standard Liège II 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KRC Genk II win broke the near-deadlock. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line. Standard Liège II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.