TSV Hartberg 2-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Austria Vienna at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 September 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg at PROfertil ARENA this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.00 (Austria Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 53% versus Austria Vienna 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (TSV Hartberg 63% | Austria Vienna 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.21 xG and Austria Vienna 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.936 / defence 1.407 | Austria Vienna attack 0.842 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.554. Data: 28 TSV Hartberg games / 28 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 22% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 49%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Austria Vienna 2.04. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 50% | Austria Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 22% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.21 / Austria Vienna 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.936 / def 1.407 | Austria Vienna attack 0.842 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.554 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Austria Vienna xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 22% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
22%
4.59
29%
3.43
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.05
1.84
Austria Vienna xG
4.59
22%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
3%
28.87
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.84 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 8D 19L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.34 PPG from 38 outings (13W 12D 13L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.08 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 5W 4D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (5W 7D 7L).
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.68 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Austria Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 11W 8D 19L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 13W 12D 13L in their last 38 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.00 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Austria Vienna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
TSV Hartberg
1
Draws
6
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 3, Austria Vienna have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Austria Vienna 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 58%, Austria Vienna 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for TSV Hartberg and 63% for Austria Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of TSV Hartberg's games and 68% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 63% of Austria Vienna's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat Austria Vienna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Austria Vienna 2-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.21 xG and Austria Vienna 1.84 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Austria Vienna landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.94 / defence 1.41 against Austria Vienna attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 22% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 49%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a TSV Hartberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 63%, Austria Vienna 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.08 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.