Lask Linz 0-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lask Linz face TSV Hartberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg meet at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 September 2023 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
Lask Linz's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
TSV Hartberg's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Lask Linz, 1.40 for TSV Hartberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 64% versus TSV Hartberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 44% | TSV Hartberg 64%). Note also that TSV Hartberg surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Lask Linz recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 56% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.31 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.119 / defence 0.641 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.088 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.610. Lask Linz have a tight defence (rating 0.641), which is pulling TSV Hartberg's projected output down. Data: built from Lask Linz's last 29 games and TSV Hartberg's last 29.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 40% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 30%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.52 | Draw 3.35 | TSV Hartberg 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lask Linz 40% (last 10 home games) | TSV Hartberg 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 8 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 40% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Lask Linz 1.31 / TSV Hartberg 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.119 / def 0.641 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.088 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.610 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.12
TSV Hartberg xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg FAQs
What time does Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz 0 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 8) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 40% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.12x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.09x) against Lask Linz's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Lask Linz's last 29 games and TSV Hartberg's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
40%
2.52
30%
3.35
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.43
1.12
TSV Hartberg xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
8%
12.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.12 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lask Linz come into this having played 39 games, going 18W 14D 7L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.13 PPG from 39 outings (12W 8D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Lask Linz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lask Linz's home form reads 11W 4D 4L across their last 19 home games, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.16 points per game from their last 19 away games (6W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lask Linz are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.31 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Lask Linz (Home) vs TSV Hartberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lask Linz
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg Form FAQs
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 18W 14D 7L in their last 39 games (1.74 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 8D 19L in their last 39 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.95 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 1W 4D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lask Linz
6
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lask Linz have won 4, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: TSV Hartberg 3-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 58%, TSV Hartberg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lask Linz) and 58% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 32%; TSV Hartberg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 47% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Lask Linz's matches and 58% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 68% of TSV Hartberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lask Linz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg finished level at 0-0 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.31 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.12 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lask Linz fell 1.3 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.12 / defence 0.64 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.09 / defence 0.92, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 40% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 30%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 44%, TSV Hartberg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.