Austria Lustenau 2-3 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Austria Lustenau face WSG Wattens.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
WSG Wattens travel to Planet Pure Stadion to take on Austria Lustenau in Bundesliga (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 September 2023 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
At home, Austria Lustenau have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
WSG Wattens — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Austria Lustenau 0.90 PPG, WSG Wattens 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Austria Lustenau have won 2, WSG Wattens 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2023, ended Austria Lustenau 2–4 WSG Wattens — a WSG Wattens win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Austria Lustenau trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
WSG Wattens trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 55% versus WSG Wattens 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 55% | WSG Wattens 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 0.93 xG and WSG Wattens 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.701 / defence 1.148 | WSG Wattens attack 0.766 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.554. Austria Lustenau's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. WSG Wattens's attack rating of 0.766 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.37. Data: built from Austria Lustenau's last 28 games and WSG Wattens's last 28.
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 22% | Draw 35% | WSG Wattens 43%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 4.62 | Draw 2.84 | WSG Wattens 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — low conviction — though recent form (Austria Lustenau's last 10 home games and WSG Wattens's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Austria Lustenau 60% (last 10 home games) | WSG Wattens 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 7 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 22% | Draw 35% | WSG Wattens 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Austria Lustenau 0.93 / WSG Wattens 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.701 / def 1.148 | WSG Wattens attack 0.766 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.554 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.37
WSG Wattens xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens FAQs
What time does Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Austria Lustenau 2 - 3 WSG Wattens.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens part of?
Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 7) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 22% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 43% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Austria Lustenau's attack at 0.70x the league average against WSG Wattens's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Austria Lustenau's last 28 games and WSG Wattens's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
22%
4.62
35%
2.84
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.29
1.37
WSG Wattens xG
4.62
22%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
6%
18.11
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 13.8 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.37 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 12D 15L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 1.05 PPG from 38 outings (10W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Lustenau on 1.18 PPG, WSG Wattens on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 6W 5D 8L across their last 19 home games, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 19 away games (6W 3D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.29 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens in 61%.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Early Season
WSG Wattens
Early Season
Austria Lustenau (Home) vs WSG Wattens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Lustenau
Early Season
WSG Wattens
Early Season
❓ Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens Form FAQs
What form are Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or WSG Wattens away?
Austria Lustenau's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.21 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from July 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Aug 2026, when WSG Wattens won Austria Lustenau 0-4 WSG Wattens.
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Austria Lustenau
1
Draws
5
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Lustenau have won 3, WSG Wattens have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Austria Lustenau 0-4 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 53%, WSG Wattens 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Austria Lustenau) and 58% (WSG Wattens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 32% of games; WSG Wattens in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Austria Lustenau's games and 58% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 58% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 68% of WSG Wattens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as WSG Wattens edge out Austria Lustenau 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Austria Lustenau 2-3 at Planet Pure Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 0.93 xG and WSG Wattens 1.37 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Austria Lustenau beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. WSG Wattens outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.70 / defence 1.15 against WSG Wattens attack 0.77 / defence 1.06, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 22% | Draw 35% | WSG Wattens 43%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 55%, WSG Wattens 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Lustenau 1.18 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.