Vorskla Poltava 0-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy make the trip to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho to face Vorskla Poltava in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Vorskla Poltava have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
LNZ Cherkasy's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 2W 3D 2L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Vorskla Poltava, 1.30 for LNZ Cherkasy — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games).
LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 56% versus LNZ Cherkasy 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 62% | LNZ Cherkasy 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.34 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.113 / defence 1.367 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.765 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.228. Data: 44 Vorskla Poltava games / 14 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 38% | Draw 27% | LNZ Cherkasy 35%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vorskla Poltava are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Vorskla Poltava 60% | LNZ Cherkasy 29%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 38% | Draw 27% | LNZ Cherkasy 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.34 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.113 / def 1.367 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.765 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.28
LNZ Cherkasy xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Vorskla Poltava 0 - 0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 38% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vorskla Poltava's attack rating (1.11) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (0.77x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
38%
2.65
27%
3.65
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.62
1.28
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.28 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 7W 3D 6L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy's form line: 5W 5D 6L from 16 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Vorskla Poltava against 1.25 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L). That actually lags their 1.50 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.06 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 7W 3D 6L in their last 16 games (1.50 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.00 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
1
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 4 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when LNZ Cherkasy 0-0 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 71%, LNZ Cherkasy 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Vorskla Poltava and 43% for LNZ Cherkasy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 43%; LNZ Cherkasy in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 29% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Vorskla Poltava's matches and 43% of LNZ Cherkasy's.
Do Vorskla Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vorskla Poltava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava and LNZ Cherkasy finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.34 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.28 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.3 short of their projected output. LNZ Cherkasy landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.11 / defence 1.37 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.77 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 38% | Draw 27% | LNZ Cherkasy 35%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 62%, LNZ Cherkasy 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.50 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.