Dnipro-1 1-2 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava meet at Dnipro Arena in Premier League (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Dnipro-1's record over their last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L (2.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Dnipro-1 at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Dnipro-1's 2.70 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Vorskla Poltava's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Dnipro-1, 1 for Vorskla Poltava and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2023, ended Dnipro-1 3–2 Vorskla Poltava — a Dnipro-1 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dnipro-1 — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 49% versus Vorskla Poltava 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 58% | Vorskla Poltava 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.41 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.353 / defence 0.887 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.841 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.200. Dnipro-1 carry an above-average attack rating of 1.353 — their 1.41 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Dnipro-1's last 45 games and Vorskla Poltava's last 45.
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 48% | Draw 30% | Vorskla Poltava 23%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 2.10 | Draw 3.36 | Vorskla Poltava 4.43. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Dnipro-1's last 10 home games and Vorskla Poltava's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dnipro-1 50% (last 10 home games) | Vorskla Poltava 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, matchday 16 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 48% | Draw 30% | Vorskla Poltava 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Dnipro-1 1.41 / Vorskla Poltava 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.353 / def 0.887 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.841 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Vorskla Poltava xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava FAQs
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Dnipro Arena.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Dnipro-1 1 - 2 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava is a Premier League fixture (matchday 16) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 48% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dnipro-1's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Vorskla Poltava's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.84x) against Dnipro-1's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Dnipro-1's last 45 games and Vorskla Poltava's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
48%
2.10
30%
3.36
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.30
0.90
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
19%
5.13
6%
18.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 0.90 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dnipro-1's recent record stands at 31W 7D 7L from 45 games, a 2.22 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Vorskla Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 17L across 45 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-D-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vorskla Poltava heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dnipro-1 have managed 15W 4D 3L from their last 22 home games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vorskla Poltava's away record stands at 8W 5D 9L across their last 22 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.18 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Dnipro-1 (Home) vs Vorskla Poltava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dnipro-1
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava Form FAQs
What form are Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 31W 7D 7L in their last 45 games (2.22 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 18W 10D 17L in their last 45 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.23 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dnipro-1 won Dnipro-1 5-1 Vorskla Poltava on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dnipro-1 have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dnipro-1
2
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Dnipro-1 have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 December 2023: Dnipro-1 1-2 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 54%, Vorskla Poltava 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Dnipro-1) and 50% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 54% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Dnipro-1's recent games and 50% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 68% of Vorskla Poltava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vorskla Poltava defy the odds to beat Dnipro-1 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Dnipro-1 1-2 at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.41 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.90 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.35 / defence 0.89 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.84 / defence 0.92, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 48% | Draw 30% | Vorskla Poltava 23%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Vorskla Poltava win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 58%, Vorskla Poltava 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.42. Form was overturned, with Vorskla Poltava winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.