Minai 0-1 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Minai vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Kryvbas KR travel to Stadion Mynai to take on Minai. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Minai have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Minai's home record at Stadion Mynai: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kryvbas KR — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Kryvbas KR's 2.00 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Minai's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Minai, 0 for Kryvbas KR and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Minai winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Minai in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Kryvbas KR in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Minai 43% versus Kryvbas KR 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Minai 27% | Kryvbas KR 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Minai 0.63 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Minai attack 0.667 / defence 0.995 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.239 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.216. Minai's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 0.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kryvbas KR have an above-average attack strength of 1.239 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Minai games / 44 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Minai 15% | Draw 28% | Kryvbas KR 58%. Fair-value odds: Minai 6.67 | Draw 3.57 | Kryvbas KR 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Kryvbas KR (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Minai 30% | Kryvbas KR 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Minai vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Mynai • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Minai 15% | Draw 28% | Kryvbas KR 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 37% | xG Minai 0.63 / Kryvbas KR 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Minai attack 0.667 / def 0.995 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.239 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.63
Minai xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Kryvbas KR xG
37%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Minai vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Minai vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stadion Mynai.
What was the final score in Minai vs Kryvbas KR?
Minai 0 - 1 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Minai vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Mynai.
What competition is Minai vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Minai vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Minai vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Minai a 15% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 58% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Minai vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Minai and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Minai vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Kryvbas KR?
Record (2 meetings): Minai 1W | Draws 1 | Kryvbas KR 0W.
What form are Minai and Kryvbas KR in?
Minai (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Minai's attack at 0.67x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Minai's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
15%
6.76
28%
3.62
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.4%
Away win
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.63
Minai xG
Total xG
2.13
1.50
Kryvbas KR xG
6.76
15%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
53%
1.88
Win to Nil
3%
30.25
31%
3.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 17.8 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.2 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Minai vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Minai and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 0.63 expected goals for Minai and 1.50 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Minai vs Kryvbas KR?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Minai have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 8W 15D 21L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kryvbas KR's form line: 20W 8D 16L from 44 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kryvbas KR are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Minai.
Venue Form
On home soil, Minai have posted 0.82 PPG from 22 outings (3W 9D 10L).
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 8W 5D 9L from 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Minai are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.18 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Minai
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Minai and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Minai have gone 8W 15D 21L in their last 44 games (0.89 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 20W 8D 16L in their last 44 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Minai at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Minai at home: 0.82 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Minai or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Minai have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Kryvbas KR have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Kryvbas KR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Minai's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Minai
1
Draws
2
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Kryvbas KR?
From 4 meetings on record, Minai have won 1, Kryvbas KR have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Minai and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Kryvbas KR 3-0 Minai.
Who has won more matches between Minai and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Minai see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Minai 41%, Kryvbas KR 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Minai and 41% for Kryvbas KR.
On the defensive side: Minai have failed to score in 46% of games; Kryvbas KR in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Minai home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Minai play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Minai's recent matches and 41% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Minai vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Minai's recent games and 41% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Minai 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Minai 0-1 at Stadion Mynai, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Minai 0.63 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.50 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Minai attack 0.67 / defence 0.99 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.24 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Minai 15% | Draw 28% | Kryvbas KR 58%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Minai 27%, Kryvbas KR 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Minai's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.