Oleksandria 1-2 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Oleksandria face LNZ Cherkasy.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CSC Nika plays host to Oleksandria versus LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League (matchday 25). Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
Oleksandria's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Oleksandria at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
LNZ Cherkasy away from home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Oleksandria, 0 for LNZ Cherkasy and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Oleksandria 0–0 LNZ Cherkasy — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 38% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 38% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 35% versus LNZ Cherkasy 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 42% | LNZ Cherkasy 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.83 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.808 / defence 0.964 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.743 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.298. LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Oleksandria's last 54 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 24.
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 31% | Draw 33% | LNZ Cherkasy 36%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 3.26 | Draw 2.99 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Oleksandria's lower xG of 0.83 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Oleksandria's last 10 home games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Oleksandria 30% (last 10 home games) | LNZ Cherkasy 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 31% | Draw 33% | LNZ Cherkasy 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Oleksandria 0.83 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.808 / def 0.964 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.743 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
0.93
LNZ Cherkasy xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy FAQs
What time does Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Oleksandria 1 - 2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 31% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (0.81) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (0.74x) against Oleksandria's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Oleksandria's last 54 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
31%
3.26
33%
2.99
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
1.76
0.93
LNZ Cherkasy xG
3.26
31%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
16%
6.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 16.0 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Oleksandria and 0.93 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Oleksandria come into this having played 26 games, going 6W 8D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, LNZ Cherkasy sit at 1.27 PPG from 26 outings (8W 9D 9L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.27 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Oleksandria's home form reads 4W 3D 6L across their last 13 home games, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, LNZ Cherkasy have taken 1.38 points per game from their last 13 away games (4W 6D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Oleksandria (Home) vs LNZ Cherkasy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oleksandria
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy Form FAQs
What form are Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 6W 8D 12L in their last 26 games (1.00 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 8W 9D 9L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.15 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won Oleksandria 4-1 LNZ Cherkasy on 12 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
2
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Oleksandria have won 2, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 23% (Oleksandria) and 38% (LNZ Cherkasy) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Oleksandria and 31% for LNZ Cherkasy.
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 38%; Oleksandria have failed to score in 46% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 38% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Oleksandria's recent games and 31% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy edge out Oleksandria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Oleksandria 1-2 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.83 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.93 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.81 / defence 0.96 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.74 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 31% | Draw 33% | LNZ Cherkasy 36%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 42%, LNZ Cherkasy 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.00 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.