Minai 1-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Minai vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Minai and Ruh Lviv meet at Stadion Mynai in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Monday 22 April 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Minai (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Minai at Stadion Mynai this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Ruh Lviv have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Ruh Lviv arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Minai 0W, Ruh Lviv 0W, 4D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Minai half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Minai 46% versus Ruh Lviv 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Minai 30% | Ruh Lviv 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Minai 1.15 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Minai attack 1.044 / defence 1.203 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.134 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.297. Data: 54 Minai games / 54 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Minai 25% | Draw 24% | Ruh Lviv 52%. Fair-value odds: Minai 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Ruh Lviv 1.92. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Minai 50% | Ruh Lviv 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Minai vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Mynai • Kick-off: Monday 22 Apr 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Minai 25% | Draw 24% | Ruh Lviv 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Minai 1.15 / Ruh Lviv 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Minai attack 1.044 / def 1.203 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.134 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Minai xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Ruh Lviv xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Minai vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Minai vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 22 April 2024 at Stadion Mynai.
What was the final score in Minai vs Ruh Lviv?
Minai 1 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Minai vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Mynai.
What competition is Minai vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Minai vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Minai vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Minai a 25% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Minai vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Minai and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Minai vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Ruh Lviv?
Record (4 meetings): Minai 0W | Draws 4 | Ruh Lviv 0W.
What form are Minai and Ruh Lviv in?
Minai (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Minai's attack at 1.04x the league average against Ruh Lviv's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (1.13x) against Minai's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
25%
4.06
24%
4.25
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Minai xG
Total xG
2.92
1.77
Ruh Lviv xG
4.06
25%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
17%
5.87
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
4%
23.84
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Minai vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Minai and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Minai and 1.77 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Minai vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Minai's recent record stands at 10W 18D 26L from 54 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 17W 21D 16L across 54 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ruh Lviv by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Minai heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Minai have managed 4W 10D 13L from 27 games — 0.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 10W 6D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Minai are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.22 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Minai
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Minai and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Minai have gone 10W 18D 26L in their last 54 games (0.89 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 17W 21D 16L in their last 54 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Minai at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Minai at home: 0.81 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Minai have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Minai
5
Draws
0
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Ruh Lviv?
From 5 meetings on record, Minai have won 0, Ruh Lviv have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Minai and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2024, when Minai 1-1 Ruh Lviv.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Minai see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Minai 44%, Ruh Lviv 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Minai) and 48% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Minai have failed to score in 41% of games; Ruh Lviv in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Minai home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Minai play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Minai's recent matches and 48% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Minai vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Minai's recent games and 48% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Minai and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Minai have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Minai and Ruh Lviv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Mynai, Regular Season - 25, as Minai and Ruh Lviv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Minai 1.15 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.77 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Minai attack 1.04 / defence 1.20 against Ruh Lviv attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Minai 25% | Draw 24% | Ruh Lviv 52%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Minai 30%, Ruh Lviv 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Minai's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.