Vorskla Poltava 0-2 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kolos Kovalivka at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka make the trip to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho to face Vorskla Poltava in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's home record at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kolos Kovalivka (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kolos Kovalivka's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Vorskla Poltava, 0.80 for Kolos Kovalivka — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 4 previous meetings, Vorskla Poltava are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Vorskla Poltava a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Vorskla Poltava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kolos Kovalivka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 53% versus Kolos Kovalivka 26%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vorskla Poltava 47% | Kolos Kovalivka 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.03 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.970 / defence 1.208 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.778 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.293. Data: 54 Vorskla Poltava games / 53 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 31% | Draw 29% | Kolos Kovalivka 40%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Kolos Kovalivka 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kolos Kovalivka as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kolos Kovalivka if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vorskla Poltava 60% | Kolos Kovalivka 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 31% | Draw 29% | Kolos Kovalivka 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.03 / Kolos Kovalivka 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.970 / def 1.208 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.778 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Kolos Kovalivka xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Vorskla Poltava 0 - 2 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 31% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka?
Record (4 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 3W | Draws 1 | Kolos Kovalivka 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vorskla Poltava's attack at 0.97x the league average against Kolos Kovalivka's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kolos Kovalivka's attack (0.78x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
31%
3.20
29%
3.50
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.25
1.22
Kolos Kovalivka xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.22 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 53 games, going 21W 12D 20L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kolos Kovalivka sit at 1.15 PPG from 53 outings (15W 16D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Vorskla Poltava against 1.15 for Kolos Kovalivka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vorskla Poltava's home form reads 11W 6D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Kolos Kovalivka have taken 1.04 points per game from 26 outings (6W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.74 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kolos Kovalivka in 26%.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 21W 12D 20L in their last 53 games (1.42 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 15W 16D 22L in their last 53 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.50 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kolos Kovalivka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
2
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Kolos Kovalivka 0-0 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 54%, Kolos Kovalivka 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vorskla Poltava) and 23% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka in 38%; Kolos Kovalivka in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Kolos Kovalivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 31% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 23% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Kolos Kovalivka in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kolos Kovalivka cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vorskla Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat Vorskla Poltava 0-2 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.03 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.22 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.97 / defence 1.21 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.78 / defence 0.96, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 31% | Draw 29% | Kolos Kovalivka 40%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 47%, Kolos Kovalivka 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.42 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kolos Kovalivka win broke the near-deadlock. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.