Lviv 0-2 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Vorskla Poltava (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lviv face Vorskla Poltava.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Lviv welcome Vorskla Poltava to Stadion SKIF. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 May 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lviv — All Games: 0W 1D 9L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lviv's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadion SKIF this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Lviv are significantly better at Stadion SKIF than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Vorskla Poltava's 1.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Lviv's 0.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lviv, 2 for Vorskla Poltava and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lviv in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Vorskla Poltava in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 46% versus Vorskla Poltava 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lviv 40% | Vorskla Poltava 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.10 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.755 / defence 1.197 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.875 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.159. Lviv's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Lviv games / 43 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lviv 33% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 39%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Vorskla Poltava 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lviv 50% | Vorskla Poltava 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion SKIF • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 33% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Lviv 1.10 / Vorskla Poltava 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.755 / def 1.197 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.875 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Vorskla Poltava xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Stadion SKIF.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Lviv 0 - 2 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion SKIF.
What competition is Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 33% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lviv and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (3 meetings): Lviv 0W | Draws 1 | Vorskla Poltava 2W.
What form are Lviv and Vorskla Poltava in?
Lviv (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lviv's attack at 0.76x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Lviv's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
33%
3.03
28%
3.54
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.31
1.22
Vorskla Poltava xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lviv and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Lviv and 1.22 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Lviv have picked up 0.70 PPG on a 7W 9D 27L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 17W 12D 14L from 43 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Vorskla Poltava are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lviv.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lviv have posted 0.67 PPG from 21 outings (3W 5D 13L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 6W 6D 9L from 21 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lviv are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.37 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 7W 9D 27L in their last 43 games (0.70 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 17W 12D 14L in their last 43 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Vorskla Poltava's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.67 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Lviv or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Vorskla Poltava have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2021, when Vorskla Poltava won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lviv's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Lviv
1
Draws
3
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Vorskla Poltava?
From 4 meetings on record, Lviv have won 0, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2023, when Lviv 0-2 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Vorskla Poltava?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 52%, Vorskla Poltava 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lviv) and 48% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Lviv have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play Vorskla Poltava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Lviv's games and 62% of Vorskla Poltava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lviv's recent games and 48% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lviv and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vorskla Poltava cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Lviv 0-2 at Stadion SKIF, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.10 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.22 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lviv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.76 / defence 1.20 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.88 / defence 1.16, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 33% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 39%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 40%, Vorskla Poltava 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.70. That form edge translated into the three points. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.