Kryvbas KR 1-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Ruh Lviv travel to Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva to take on Kryvbas KR. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Kryvbas KR have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Kryvbas KR carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kryvbas KR, 1 for Ruh Lviv and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Ruh Lviv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kryvbas KR trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Ruh Lviv trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 36% versus Ruh Lviv 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 40% | Ruh Lviv 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.25 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 0.885 / defence 1.024 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.745 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.194. Data: 25 Kryvbas KR games / 42 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 44% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 27%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Ruh Lviv 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 40% | Ruh Lviv 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 44% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.25 / Ruh Lviv 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 0.885 / def 1.024 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.745 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Ruh Lviv xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Kryvbas KR 1 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 44% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): Kryvbas KR 0W | Draws 0 | Ruh Lviv 1W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kryvbas KR's attack at 0.89x the league average against Ruh Lviv's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.46
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.16
0.91
Ruh Lviv xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
8%
12.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.91 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 9W 5D 11L from 25 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 5W 9D 11L across 25 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kryvbas KR on 1.28 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kryvbas KR have managed 6W 1D 5L from 12 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 2W 3D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kryvbas KR are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.04 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 9W 5D 11L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 5W 9D 11L in their last 25 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.58 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Kryvbas KR have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2026, when Kryvbas KR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kryvbas KR
3
Draws
2
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv?
From 8 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 3, Ruh Lviv have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kryvbas KR 3-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 33%, Ruh Lviv 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Kryvbas KR) and 50% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kryvbas KR have failed to score in 42% of games; Ruh Lviv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 42% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 50% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Ruh Lviv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Ruh Lviv 1-0 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.25 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.91 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 0.89 / defence 1.02 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.74 / defence 1.15, drawn from 25/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 44% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 27%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 40%, Ruh Lviv 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.28 PPG, Ruh Lviv 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kryvbas KR win broke the near-deadlock. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.