Inhulets 0-2 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Inhulets face Shakhtar Donetsk.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Inhulets welcome Shakhtar Donetsk to Arena L'viv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Inhulets have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets at Arena L'viv this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena L'viv. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Inhulets are significantly better at Arena L'viv than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Shakhtar Donetsk have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Inhulets's 0 victories.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 0–3 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
It is worth noting that Shakhtar Donetsk have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Inhulets in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 43% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 45% | Shakhtar Donetsk 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.75 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.684 / defence 0.906 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.659 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.157. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.659 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Inhulets games / 43 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 16% | Draw 23% | Shakhtar Donetsk 61%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 6.25 | Draw 4.35 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Inhulets 30% | Shakhtar Donetsk 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 16% | Draw 23% | Shakhtar Donetsk 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 43% | xG Inhulets 0.75 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.684 / def 0.906 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.659 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Inhulets 0 - 2 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 16% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 61% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (3 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 0 | Shakhtar Donetsk 3W.
What form are Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Inhulets (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Inhulets's attack rating (0.68) and Shakhtar Donetsk's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
16%
6.37
23%
4.31
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.48
1.74
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
6.37
16%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
3%
36.19
29%
3.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 14.5 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.74 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Inhulets's recent record stands at 10W 10D 22L from 42 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 32W 8D 2L across 42 games — 2.48 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 1.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Inhulets heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Inhulets have managed 7W 3D 11L from 21 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record stands at 15W 5D 1L across 21 trips, a 2.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Inhulets are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.50 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 10W 10D 22L in their last 42 games (0.95 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 32W 8D 2L in their last 42 (2.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.14 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Inhulets or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shakhtar Donetsk have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inhulets's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Inhulets
0
Draws
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 6 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Inhulets 1-4 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 38%, Shakhtar Donetsk 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Inhulets) and 62% (Shakhtar Donetsk).
On the defensive side: Inhulets keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 48%; Inhulets have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Inhulets's recent matches and 52% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Inhulets's recent games and 62% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shakhtar Donetsk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Inhulets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Inhulets 0-2 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.75 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.74 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.68 / defence 0.91 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.66 / defence 0.86, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 16% | Draw 23% | Shakhtar Donetsk 61%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 45%, Shakhtar Donetsk 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Inhulets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.