Ratchaburi 3-1 Trat FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 75%, yet in-form Trat FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ratchaburi vs Trat FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Trat FC make the trip to Dragon Solar Park to face Ratchaburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 September 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 3W 4D 3L at Dragon Solar Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Dragon Solar Park than their overall form suggests.
Trat FC (all games): 1W 3D 1L across 5 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Trat FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Trat FC are 0.60 PPG clear of Ratchaburi in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Ratchaburi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Trat FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 40% versus Trat FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 40% | Trat FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.38 xG and Trat FC 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.140 / defence 0.974 | Trat FC attack 0.666 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.053. Data: 35 Ratchaburi games / 5 Trat FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 75% | Draw 17% | Trat FC 8%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.33 | Draw 5.88 | Trat FC 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (75%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trat FC (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 60% | Trat FC 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Trat FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 75% | Draw 17% | Trat FC 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 45% | xG Ratchaburi 2.38 / Trat FC 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.140 / def 0.974 | Trat FC attack 0.666 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.792 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Trat FC xG
45%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Trat FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Trat FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Trat FC?
Ratchaburi 3 - 1 Trat FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Trat FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Trat FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Trat FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Trat FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 75% chance of winning, Trat FC a 8% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Trat FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ratchaburi and Trat FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Trat FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Trat FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ratchaburi and Trat FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Trat FC (all comps): 1W-3D-1L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Trat FC's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.38. Flip it around — Trat FC's attack (0.67x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
75%
1.34
17%
5.95
8%
11.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.07
0.68
Trat FC xG
1.34
75%
Home win
5.95
17%
Draw
11.89
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
9%
10.83
Win to Nil
38%
2.65
1%
128.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Trat FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Trat FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.68 for Trat FC, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Trat FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ratchaburi come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 1D 3L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Trat FC sit at 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (1W 3D 1L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Trat FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Ratchaburi against 1.20 for Trat FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Trat FC are on 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Trat FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Trat FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Trat FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Trat FC have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Have Ratchaburi or Trat FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Trat FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ratchaburi
1
Draws
0
Trat FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Trat FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 1, Trat FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Trat FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2024, when Trat FC 2-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Trat FC?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Trat FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 40%, Trat FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ratchaburi) and 60% (Trat FC).
On the defensive side: Trat FC in 40%; Ratchaburi have failed to score in 60% of games; Trat FC in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Trat FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Trat FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 40% of Trat FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Trat FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 60% of Trat FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Trat FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Trat FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Trat FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Trat FC 3-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.38 xG and Trat FC 0.68 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.14 / defence 0.97 against Trat FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.17, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 75% | Draw 17% | Trat FC 8%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 40%, Trat FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Trat FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 0.80 PPG, Trat FC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Trat FC shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.