Chonburi FC 0-2 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chonburi UTA Stadium plays host to Chonburi FC versus Uthai Thani in Thai League 1 (matchday 6). Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Chonburi FC have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Chonburi FC at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Uthai Thani (all games): 1W 0D 4L across their last 5 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings (20%).
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Chonburi FC's favour (1.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Chonburi FC — key trading statistics (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 40% versus Uthai Thani 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 40% | Uthai Thani 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.70 xG and Uthai Thani 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.754 / defence 0.864 | Uthai Thani attack 0.749 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.765 / away 1.109. Chonburi FC's attack rating of 0.754 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.70. Uthai Thani's defence rating of 1.273 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chonburi FC's projected output up. Uthai Thani's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Chonburi FC's last 34 games and Uthai Thani's last 5.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 60% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 15%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.66 | Draw 4.02 | Uthai Thani 6.71. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (60%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chonburi FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Uthai Thani 40% (last 5 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 6 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 60% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Chonburi FC 1.70 / Uthai Thani 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.754 / def 0.864 | Uthai Thani attack 0.749 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.765 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Uthai Thani xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani FAQs
What time does Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Chonburi FC 0 - 2 Uthai Thani.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 6) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 60% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (0.75) and Uthai Thani's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (0.75x) against Chonburi FC's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from Chonburi FC's last 34 games and Uthai Thani's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
60%
1.66
25%
4.02
15%
6.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.41
0.72
Uthai Thani xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
6.71
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
29%
3.40
3%
36.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.72 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chonburi FC come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 2D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 0.60 scored and 2.20 conceded.
Defensively: Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Chonburi FC (Home) vs Uthai Thani (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani Form FAQs
What form are Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
Have Chonburi FC or Uthai Thani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Uthai Thani in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Chonburi FC
3
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Chonburi FC have won 0, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: Chonburi FC 1-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 40%, Uthai Thani 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Chonburi FC) and 60% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Chonburi FC have failed to score in 40% of games; Uthai Thani in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 40% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 60% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 40% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 80% of Uthai Thani's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Chonburi FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Chonburi FC 0-2 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.70 xG and Uthai Thani 0.72 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Chonburi FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Uthai Thani outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.75 / defence 0.86 against Uthai Thani attack 0.75 / defence 1.27, drawn from 34/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 60% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 15%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Uthai Thani win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 40%, Uthai Thani 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Uthai Thani winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chonburi FC managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Uthai Thani scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.