Port FC 6-1 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Port FC at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Khon Kaen United encounter.

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Match Analysis

Port FC host Khon Kaen United at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 30 September 2023 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Port FC stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Port FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Khon Kaen United — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Khon Kaen United have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Port FC, 1 for Khon Kaen United and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2023, ended Port FC 0–1 Khon Kaen United — a Khon Kaen United win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Port FC trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.

Khon Kaen United trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 77% and Khon Kaen United 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 63% | Khon Kaen United 34%). Note also that Khon Kaen United surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Port FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.85 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.151 / defence 0.965 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.774 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.048. Khon Kaen United's attack rating of 0.774 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Port FC's last 35 games and Khon Kaen United's last 35.

Result probabilities: Port FC 62% | Draw 23% | Khon Kaen United 15%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.61 | Draw 4.33 | Khon Kaen United 6.75. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (62%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Port FC's last 10 home games and Khon Kaen United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Port FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Khon Kaen United 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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