Lamphun Warrior 2-1 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC meet at Mae Guang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lamphun Warrior have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at Mae Guang Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chonburi FC (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Lamphun Warrior's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Chonburi FC's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lamphun Warrior register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Chonburi FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 3 meetings, Chonburi FC have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Lamphun Warrior's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Chonburi FC winning.
It is worth noting that Chonburi FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Lamphun Warrior half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 50% versus Chonburi FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 50% | Chonburi FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.99 xG and Chonburi FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.146 / defence 1.012 | Chonburi FC attack 0.900 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.259. Data: 46 Lamphun Warrior games / 47 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 55% | Draw 25% | Chonburi FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Chonburi FC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Chonburi FC lead the H2H ledger, but Lamphun Warrior carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 80% | Chonburi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Mae Guang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 55% | Draw 25% | Chonburi FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.99 / Chonburi FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.146 / def 1.012 | Chonburi FC attack 0.900 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Chonburi FC xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Mae Guang Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC?
Lamphun Warrior 2 - 1 Chonburi FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Mae Guang Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 55% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC?
Record (3 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 3W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (1.15) and Chonburi FC's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (0.90x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.02
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.14
1.15
Chonburi FC xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
3%
37.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.15 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 46 games, going 14W 13D 19L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chonburi FC sit at 1.24 PPG from 46 outings (16W 9D 21L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 1.24 for Chonburi FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 11W 6D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chonburi FC have taken 0.87 points per game from 23 outings (5W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 14W 13D 19L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 16W 9D 21L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Chonburi FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.70 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
1
Draws
4
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Chonburi FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Chonburi FC 1-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC?
Chonburi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 61%, Chonburi FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lamphun Warrior) and 56% (Chonburi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 26% of games; Chonburi FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 65% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 56% of Chonburi FC's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamphun Warrior edge out Chonburi FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Chonburi FC 2-1 at Mae Guang Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.99 xG and Chonburi FC 1.15 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.15 / defence 1.01 against Chonburi FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 55% | Draw 25% | Chonburi FC 20%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 50%, Chonburi FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.20 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.