Chonburi FC 4-2 Police Tero – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Police Tero at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chonburi FC face Police Tero.

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Match Analysis

Chonburi FC host Police Tero at Chonburi UTA Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 17). Kick-off is Wednesday 14 February 2024 at 11:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Chonburi FC — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Chonburi FC's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Police Tero stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Police Tero's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chonburi FC at 0.80 PPG versus Police Tero's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Chonburi FC have won 2, Police Tero 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Chonburi FC 2–3 Police Tero — a Police Tero win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Police Tero in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 54% and Police Tero 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 50% | Police Tero 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.19 xG and Police Tero 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.756 / defence 0.954 | Police Tero attack 1.047 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.283. Chonburi FC's attack rating of 0.756 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Data: built from Chonburi FC's last 46 games and Police Tero's last 46.

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 32% | Draw 31% | Police Tero 37%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 3.10 | Draw 3.21 | Police Tero 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Police Tero at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Police Tero offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chonburi FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Police Tero 80% (last 10 away games).

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