Prachuap 1-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Port FC (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Prachuap face Port FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port FC make the trip to Sam Ao Stadium to face Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Prachuap have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port FC (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Port FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Port FC are 1.30 PPG clear of Prachuap in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.90 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Prachuap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Port FC in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Prachuap lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 1–3 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Prachuap 68% and Port FC 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 53% | Port FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.21 xG and Port FC 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.931 / defence 1.054 | Port FC attack 1.360 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.270. Port FC's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Port FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.360 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Prachuap games / 47 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 24% | Draw 26% | Port FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Port FC 2.00. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 70% | Port FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 24% | Draw 26% | Port FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Prachuap 1.21 / Port FC 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.931 / def 1.054 | Port FC attack 1.360 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Port FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Port FC xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Port FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Port FC?
Prachuap 1 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Port FC part of?
Prachuap vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 24% chance of winning, Port FC a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Prachuap and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Port FC?
Record (5 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 1 | Port FC 3W.
What form are Prachuap and Port FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Port FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (0.93) and Port FC's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.36x) against Prachuap's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
24%
4.19
26%
3.85
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Prachuap xG
Total xG
3.03
1.82
Port FC xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
4%
25.81
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.82 for Port FC, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Prachuap have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 11W 14D 22L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC's form line: 25W 12D 10L from 47 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L).
On the road, Port FC have gone 9W 8D 6L from 23 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Prachuap are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.11 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Port FC in 74%.
Last 47 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Port FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 11W 14D 22L in their last 47 games (1.00 PPG), while Port FC have gone 25W 12D 10L in their last 47 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.30 PPG; Port FC away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-2 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Prachuap
3
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 2, Port FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Prachuap, 74% for Port FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Prachuap) and 61% (Port FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Prachuap's games and 74% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Prachuap's matches and 61% of Port FC's.
Do Prachuap and Port FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Port FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap and Port FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap and Port FC finished level at 1-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.21 xG and Port FC 1.82 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Port FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.93 / defence 1.05 against Port FC attack 1.36 / defence 0.80, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 24% | Draw 26% | Port FC 50%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 53%, Port FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.