Chonburi FC 0-1 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chonburi FC face Nakhon Pathom.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Nakhon Pathom make the trip to Chonburi UTA Stadium to face Chonburi FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 13:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Chonburi FC have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Chonburi FC at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Nakhon Pathom's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Nakhon Pathom have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Chonburi FC against 1.00 for Nakhon Pathom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Nakhon Pathom edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Chonburi FC 0–1 Nakhon Pathom — a Nakhon Pathom win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Chonburi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Nakhon Pathom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 86%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 60% and Nakhon Pathom 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 48% | Nakhon Pathom 64%). Note also that Nakhon Pathom surrender HT leads in 86% of cases while Chonburi FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.85 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.915 / defence 0.923 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.910 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.171. Data: built from Chonburi FC's last 55 games and Nakhon Pathom's last 25.

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 57% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 19%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.76 | Draw 4.13 | Nakhon Pathom 5.30. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chonburi FC's last 10 home games and Nakhon Pathom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chonburi FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Nakhon Pathom 90% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights