Port FC 2-0 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Chonburi FC travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port FC have posted 6W 1D 3L at PAT Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Port FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Chonburi FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Port FC have won 2, Chonburi FC 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 2–0 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Port FC trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Chonburi FC trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 73% and Chonburi FC 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 64% | Chonburi FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.19 xG and Chonburi FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.113 / defence 1.170 | Chonburi FC attack 0.836 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.202. Data: 56 Port FC games / 56 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 60% | Draw 21% | Chonburi FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Chonburi FC 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 60% | Chonburi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 60% | Draw 21% | Chonburi FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG Port FC 2.19 / Chonburi FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.113 / def 1.170 | Chonburi FC attack 0.836 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Port FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Chonburi FC xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Port FC vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Port FC 2 - 0 Chonburi FC.
Where is Port FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Port FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 60% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Port FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chonburi FC?
Record (5 meetings): Port FC 2W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 3W.
What form are Port FC and Chonburi FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Chonburi FC's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.84
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.36
1.18
Chonburi FC xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
11%
8.89
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
2%
46.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Port FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Port FC and 1.18 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC come into this having played 56 games, going 28W 17D 11L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chonburi FC sit at 1.23 PPG from 56 outings (19W 12D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Port FC's home form reads 18W 5D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Chonburi FC have taken 0.89 points per game from 28 outings (6W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.34 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 28W 17D 11L in their last 56 games (1.80 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 19W 12D 25L in their last 56 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Chonburi FC away?
Port FC's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.11 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Port FC
0
Draws
4
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Chonburi FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Chonburi FC 3-2 Port FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Port FC at 71%, Chonburi FC at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Port FC and 54% for Chonburi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Port FC's games and 64% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Port FC's matches and 54% of Chonburi FC's.
Do Port FC and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chonburi FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Chonburi FC 2-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.19 xG and Chonburi FC 1.18 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chonburi FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.17 against Chonburi FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.18, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 60% | Draw 21% | Chonburi FC 19%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 64%, Chonburi FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.