Chiangrai United 1-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Ratchaburi travel to Singha Chiangrai Stadium to take on Chiangrai United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chiangrai United have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's home record at Singha Chiangrai Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Chiangrai United's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Chiangrai United, 1 for Ratchaburi and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with Ratchaburi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 67% versus Ratchaburi 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 56% | Ratchaburi 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.09 xG and Ratchaburi 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.855 / defence 1.133 | Ratchaburi attack 0.807 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.212. Ratchaburi's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Chiangrai United games / 55 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 35% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 35%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Ratchaburi 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Chiangrai United 70% | Ratchaburi 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Singha Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 35% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Chiangrai United 1.09 / Ratchaburi 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.855 / def 1.133 | Ratchaburi attack 0.807 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ratchaburi xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Chiangrai United 1 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 35% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
Record (5 meetings): Chiangrai United 1W | Draws 3 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chiangrai United's attack rating (0.85) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.34
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.20
1.11
Ratchaburi xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.11 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 19W 16D 20L from 55 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 19L across 55 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.33 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 12W 8D 7L from 27 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 6W 8D 13L across 27 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.18 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 19W 16D 20L in their last 55 games (1.33 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 20W 16D 19L in their last 55 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.63 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chiangrai United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chiangrai United
3
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 67%, Ratchaburi 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Chiangrai United) and 33% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 41% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 33% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chiangrai United defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Ratchaburi 1-0 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.09 xG and Ratchaburi 1.11 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.85 / defence 1.13 against Ratchaburi attack 0.81 / defence 0.76, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 35% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 35%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 56%, Ratchaburi 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.33 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.