Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Lausanne travel to Stade Olympique de la Pontaise to take on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Lausanne have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lausanne are 0.50 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, 1 for Lausanne and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Lausanne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lausanne trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 91% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 68% and Lausanne 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 73% | Lausanne 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.38 xG and Lausanne 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.697 / defence 1.639 | Lausanne attack 0.859 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.282. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lausanne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy games / 22 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 30% | Draw 23% | Lausanne 48%. Fair-value odds: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Lausanne 2.08. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lausanne as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 80% | Lausanne 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Olympique de la Pontaise • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 30% | Draw 23% | Lausanne 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.38 / Lausanne 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.697 / def 1.639 | Lausanne attack 0.859 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Lausanne xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne kick off?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise.
What was the final score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise.
What competition is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne part of?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 30% chance of winning, Lausanne a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne?
Record (2 meetings): Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0W | Draws 1 | Lausanne 1W.
What form are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne in?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Lausanne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack at 0.70x the league average against Lausanne's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
30%
3.38
23%
4.36
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
Total xG
3.19
1.80
Lausanne xG
3.38
30%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
16%
6.08
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
5%
20.58
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 1.80 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy come into this having played 22 games, going 3W 5D 14L for 0.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lausanne sit at 0.95 PPG from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy on 0.64 PPG, Lausanne on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's home form reads 1W 4D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Lausanne have taken 0.55 points per game from 11 outings (1W 3D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.23 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.27 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Lausanne in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne in coming into this match?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 3W 5D 14L in their last 22 games (0.64 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home or Lausanne away?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's home record (0.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home: 0.64 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2024, when Lausanne won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2
Draws
2
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne?
From 4 meetings on record, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 0, Lausanne have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0-4 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 73%, Lausanne at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 91% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Lausanne-Ouchy home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Lausanne-Ouchy play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's games and 82% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's matches and 91% of Lausanne's.
Do Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne tend to score early?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne finished level at 1-1 at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.38 xG and Lausanne 1.80 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lausanne landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.70 / defence 1.64 against Lausanne attack 0.86 / defence 1.32, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 30% | Draw 23% | Lausanne 48%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 73%, Lausanne 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0.64 PPG, Lausanne 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line. Lausanne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.